Tearing Off Plasma's ZK-Rollup Veil: Data Tells You How Deep Its "High Performance" Moat Really Is?
【I do not hold $XPL tokens, and have no cooperation / interest relationship with the Plasma team. The content of this article is independent research analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Market risks are to be borne by oneself】
Don't be fooled by the "Ethereum killer" narrative!
@plasma focuses on ZK-Rollup Layer2, and the real barrier lies not in slogans, but in data details.
Core Judgment: Its core story is ZK-driven high TPS and low cost, but the moat faces two major tests—① Technical Implementation: The testnet TPS claims to be over 2000+, but can it remain stable in the real congestion environment of the mainnet? Doubts arise when comparing to zkSync Era's initial mainnet 300 TPS; ② Ecosystem Cold Start: About 50 partners, but interactive DApps are only in single digits, far less than Arbitrum's 200+ applications during the same period, still in the early stages.
Hard Core Testing & Competitor Quantification: The cost of a single Swap is $0.05-$0.1, better than Optimism ($0.2), slightly higher than Polygon zkEVM ($0.03); the testnet bridging TVL growth is steep, but the base is only in the tens of millions of dollars, compared to Starknet's similar stage, the mainnet retention needs to be observed.
Risk Quantification: High Priority → zkProver core module relies on external sources, posing a "bottleneck" risk; Medium Priority → ZK privacy features may attract stringent regulatory scrutiny; Low Priority → The $XPL economic model has not been disclosed, and the value capture path is unclear.
Core Observations: Stability of TPS and Gas fluctuations in the first month of the mainnet; weekly new active protocols, TVL share; growth rate of unique addresses, net inflow of cross-chain bridges.
@plasma's story is compelling but still a "work in progress". Value realization depends on the data from the first 90 days after the mainnet launch. Investors should avoid FOMO and use data instead of faith.
What do you think about the final winner of the ZK-Rollup race? Is it the best technology, or the ecosystem that explodes first?
