#PowellRemarks When former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes writes something on Twitter, the market either freezes or crashes. This time he didn't just write a couple of words – he directly stated: guys, cashing on autopilot is no longer possible. American investors, it seems, have become too accustomed to a rising market, as if it is an eternal holiday where the S&P 500 hands out gifts every year. But the party is nearing its end.

Fact number one: a bull market is not the norm.

From 2009 to 2021, the S&P 500 index increased by more than 400%, even taking into account the COVID-19 crisis. Millennial and Gen Z investors seem to have decided that this is how it should be: invest in an ETF, step away to make coffee, and return a millionaire. But Hayes reminds us that such periods are more of an exception than a rule.

He cites Japan as an example: the Nikkei index peaked in 1989 and… did not exceed that until the 2020s. Almost 30 years of stagnation – a greeting from the future, possibly for the USA as well.

Hayes believes that an era of not lazy investors but active traders is coming: 'Adapt or get out.' A sideways market is paradise for those who catch waves and know how to set stops, but hell for those who simply hold and wait.

Trump vs Private Equity

And here it gets particularly interesting. Donald Trump seems determined to end the tax loophole known as carried interest. Currently, fund managers pay a reduced tax rate of 20% on profits instead of the usual 37% because their income is considered 'investment income.'

If the loophole is closed, the profits of managers will sharply decrease, and with them the attractiveness of the entire sector. According to the U.S. Congress, this will cost the industry more than $180 billion over the next 10 years.

Add to this tighter regulation, rising interest rates, and decreasing liquidity, and we get a powerful cocktail, after which venture capital will be not venture but rather risky.

Bitcoin record? Not under Trump, says Hayes.

Some hoped that Trump, upon returning to the White House, would announce: 'And now, let's create a Bitcoin reserve for the USA!' Hayes considers this fantasy. According to him, when the priorities are healthcare, the military, and again healthcare, no one will spend billions to buy digital gold.

Arthur Hayes, as always, is not just panicking. He gives advice:

1. Adapt: if you are not a trader – learn. Dividends and ETFs will no longer save you.

2. Diversify: private equity is not the only way, look broader.

3. Be flexible: the market is changing, are you?