ย "What Next?" Scenario Analysis
LTC's Next Move: 3 Probable Scenarios from the MA60 Precipice
Scenario 1: Breakdown & Cascade (Highest Probability - 60%)
Trigger:ย Sustained price action belowย 52.80.
Narrative:ย High-volume break confirms seller dominance. MA60 flips to resistance.
Path:ย Quick drop toย $51.00, with potential forย $49.00.
Action:ย Enter short on break/retest ofย 52.90-53.00. SL above 53.50.
Scenario 2: Volatile Sideways Grind (Medium Probability - 30%)
Trigger:ย Price chops betweenย 52.50 - 53.50ย for multiple hours.
Narrative:ย Buyers and sellers are in equilibrium at the key level, digesting the move.
Path:ย A tightening range before the next decisive move.
Action:ย Stay out or only scalp with very tight stops. Wait for the range to break.
Scenario 3: False Breakdown & Short Squeeze (Low Probability - 10%)
Trigger:ย Strong bullish rejection candle from ~$52.80, followed by a close aboveย 53.50.
Narrative:ย The high-volume drop was a "stop hunt," trapping eager shorts.
Path:ย A sharp rally back towardย $54.50 - $55.00ย to liquidate short positions.
Action:ย Do NOT buy the dip blindly. Only enter a long on a confirmed, strong reversal closing aboveย 53.80.
Bottom Line:ย The weight of evidence (trend, volume, performance) favorsย Scenario 1. Prepare for further downside unless buyers defend MA60 with undeniable force.
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