btcanalysis

I studied the Bitcoin chart for a long time and came across an interesting point: how the market momentum behaves in different cycles when looking at the RSI.
The charts show a recurring pattern, and it is worth considering, even if the market is rising.

The strength of the momentum weakens with each cycle
In every major rise, it should be noted that $BTC cannot create a new RSI maximum above the previous cycle. Pay attention to the white line on the chart; everything is obvious here, especially interesting on ATX 126199, it seems that even back then the indicator hinted at a decline in BTC.

, raising concerns among traders and analysts about a possible deeper correction — potentially even toward the $50,000 region. Over the weekend, Bitcoin managed a short-term rebound of nearly 3%, offering temporary relief after Friday’s sharp sell-off. However, this bounce has done little to convince the broader market that selling pressure has fully subsided.

Losses that began late last week extended into the weekend, keeping volatility elevated. Although Bitcoin briefly reclaimed a key technical level, uncertainty remains high as market participants debate whether macroeconomic factors and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are strong enough to provide meaningful support. On-chain data and technical indicators suggest the market is still in a transition phase, with no confirmed directional trend.

Some analysts warn that if Bitcoin continues to mirror its 2022 bear market structure, a move toward fresh macro lows cannot be ruled out. In this context, long-term indicators such as the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) have become critical reference points. This zone is widely viewed as a battleground between bulls and bears. Holding above it could strengthen the recovery narrative, while a breakdown would likely open the door to further downside.

Another growing concern revolves around U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Current estimates suggest the average ETF cost basis sits near $82,000, placing many holders in unrealized losses at current prices. Continued downside could intensify pressure, potentially triggering additional selling and further weakening market sentiment.

Several veteran traders also argue that the market has yet to experience a true capitulation phase. According to this view, a more convincing bottom may only form if Bitcoin falls below $50,000, forcing late buyers and ETF participants to confront deeper losses. From this perspective, the recent bounce may represent a relief rally rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

That said, not all analysts agree that history will repeat itself exactly. While similarities to past cycles exist, structural changes — including institutional participation and regulated investment vehicles — could lead to different outcomes. As such, a drop to $50,000 should be viewed as a risk scenario, not a certainty.

In the broader context, the crypto market remains weighed down by macroeconomic uncertainty, tight liquidity conditions, and risk-averse investor behavior. ETF flows, on-chain metrics, and global economic signals are collectively shaping Bitcoin’s next move. Until the asset begins to print higher lows and regain sustained momentum, heightened volatility is likely to persist.

In the coming days, traders will be closely watching the $58,000–$68,000 support zone, long-term moving average levels, and ETF flow data. A strong defense of these areas could gradually improve sentiment, while a decisive breakdown may set the stage for another wave of selling.

For now, Bitcoin stands at a critical inflection point. The current consolidation could either evolve into a solid base for recovery or become the precursor to a deeper correction. Given the stakes, most market participants are choosing caution, closely monitoring price behavior as the next major move takes shape.

#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #BTCAnalysis #MarketVolatility #TradingInsights $BTC

$BTC
🚀 Position Long +
Bitcoin is showing a clear structure shift on the daily timeframe after strong rejection from the bearish flag resistance. Sellers are still active, but short-term relief moves are tradable — and that’s exactly where this long setup came from.

Here’s the clean breakdown 👇

🔹 Market rejected from bearish flag resistance
🔹 Downtrend structure still valid overall
🔹 New consolidation range forming (possible mini flag)
🔹 Short-term bounce zone: $73K–$75K
🔹 Major reclaim level for trend strength: $89K–$91K

💰 Trade Status
✅ Long position active
✅ First target hit
✅ Locked in: +$1,800 profit
🎯 Next target: ~$73K zone
🛡 Stop managed to protect gains

⚠️ If BTC fails to hold strength near 73K–75K, expect another bearish expansion.
🔥 If BTC reclaims higher resistance levels → momentum shift → squeeze toward 89K+ possible.

Engagement trigger for Binance Square algorithm 👇
What’s your next BTC level — 75K or 60K first? Comment your bias.

#Write2Earn #BTC #bitcoin #CryptoTrading #priceaction #BTCAnalysis #longtrade