欧吉巴克

The most anticipated tracks of 2026, comprehensively determining certainty, explosiveness, and institutional consensus, the technology side primarily recommends AI full chain (computing power + applications + end side), while the crypto side primarily recommends RWA + tokenized super cycle. The following are the concise conclusions and key landing points.

1. Technology Track (High Consensus Across the Market)

• 🏁 AI Full Chain (Computing Power + Applications + End Side): Shifting from capital expenditure to application landing, global AI capital expenditure in 2026 may exceed $500 billion, with a year-on-year growth of over 30%. On the computing power side, focus on domestic chips, servers, liquid cooling, and optical modules; on the application side, focus on the commercialization of vertical scenarios; on the end side, focus on AI PCs, smart glasses, humanoid robots, and other mass production.

• 🤖 Humanoid Robots: Cost reduction and surge in sales, domestic sales in 2026 may exceed 50,000 units (approximately 8 times that of 2025), with component costs dropping by 35% in a year, crossing the psychological threshold of 100,000 yuan.

• 🚗 L3+ Smart Driving: Policy breakthroughs and accelerated commercialization, automakers and tech companies jointly promote this, benefiting segments like lidar, domain controllers, and algorithms.

• 🛰️ Commercial Aerospace + 6G: Acceleration of low-orbit constellation networking, progress of 6G terahertz prototypes exceeds expectations, and the integration of air and ground communication infrastructure takes shape.

• 🧬 Biomedicine (Innovative Drugs + Biological Computing): GLP-1 weight loss drugs continue to explode, biological computing shortens new drug development cycles, and innovative drugs enter a new performance realization period.

2. Crypto Track (Institutional Heavyweight Main Line)

• 🏆 Tokenized Super Cycle (RWA + Stablecoins + Prediction Markets): Institutions like Bernstein are unanimously optimistic, with stablecoin scale in 2026 potentially reaching $420 billion, RWA tokenization scale possibly reaching $80 billion, and prediction market transaction volume expected to rise to $70 billion. RWA will put traditional assets on-chain, lowering thresholds and enhancing liquidity, serving as the core entrance for institutional funds.

• 🤝 AI × Blockchain Integration: The rise of autonomous agents and decentralized computing networks, giving birth to the 'autonomous machine economy,' with micro-payment channels and decentralized rendering scenarios accelerating.

• 🌉 Layer 2 and Modular Public Chains: Intensified competition in Ethereum Layer 2, with leading projects like Arbitrum solidifying advantages; modular networks like Celestia gaining attention, addressing scalability and interoperability issues.
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Around January 30, 2026, a major plunge in precious metals occurred, primarily due to profit-taking at high levels, compounded by leveraged sell-offs, margin increases, and a reversal in Federal Reserve policy expectations, resulting in a "flash crash." Here are the key details:

1. Core Trigger: Profit-Taking at High Levels

In January, gold rose more than 30% in a single month, silver prices increased nearly 70%, and London gold once broke $5600, accumulating a massive profit pool. Institutions and speculative funds concentrated their realizations at historical highs, triggering the first round of selling. The technical indicators showed serious overbought conditions (RSI broke 80 at one point), indicating a strong demand for correction.

2. Key Drivers of Amplified Declines

• Leveraged Sell-Offs: CME and others raised margin requirements for precious metal contracts, increasing financial pressure on high-leverage traders, triggering stop-loss orders as prices fell, creating a cycle of "liquidation selling—price decline—forced liquidations," with algorithmic trading amplifying volatility.

• Reversal of Policy Expectations: Trump nominated the hawkish Kevin Walsh as Federal Reserve Chairman, leading the market to bet on a cooling of rapid rate cut expectations, causing the dollar to strengthen and real interest rates to rise, which suppressed precious metals.

• Weak Market Structure: Silver, due to its small size and low liquidity, experienced volatility much greater than gold, with the main silver futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropping 31.37% in a single day, marking the worst performance since March 1980.

3. Market Overview (as of February 2, 5:50 AM)

• London Gold Spot: $4884.36/ounce, down 10.18%.

• London Silver Spot: $85.115/ounce, down 19.98%.

• Gold T+D: 1070 yuan/gram, down 9.47%.

• Silver T+D: 23420 yuan/kilogram, down 19.00%.

4. Future Market Outlook and Operational Tips

• Short-Term: May fluctuate to find a bottom, with key support at London gold $4750-$4850/ounce, with silver being more volatile.

• Mid-Term: Long-term support from central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization remains, with the sharp declines being more of a technical correction.

• Operations: Control positions and leverage, accumulate in batches at lower prices, avoid chasing highs; pay attention to Federal Reserve policies and margin dynamics. #恭喜发财 $ congratulations and wealth

On February 1st, the London gold spot price fell below $5000, reaching a low of $4680/ounce, with a maximum intraday decline of over 10%, closing at $4884.36/ounce, a drop of 10.18%; London silver also plummeted, with a decline of nearly 20%. Domestic gold T+D is reported at 1070 yuan/gram, with a drop of 9.47%.

Core Reasons for the Plunge

• Hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve: Officials have signaled that inflation has not met targets and do not support interest rate cuts for now, leading to a stronger dollar and increased opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

• High leverage liquidation: Previous excessive gains have concentrated long leverage, and falling prices triggered stop-losses and forced liquidations, creating a cycle of "decline - liquidation - accelerated decline."

• Overbought technical indicators and profit-taking: RSI has been in the overbought range for a long time, with high-level profit-taking concentrated in escape, and algorithmic trading amplifying volatility.

• Insufficient liquidity: Particularly severe for silver, with a small scale and high open contracts, a small number of sell orders can trigger a price collapse.

Market Impact and Operational Suggestions

• Over $2.5 billion in liquidations across the network within 24 hours, mainstream cryptocurrencies have broadly declined
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