The price of the Pump.fun token has increased by over 20% in the last 24 hours, a net movement that stands out among others. In the last month, the price of PUMP has risen by over 60%. However, broadening the time horizon, the trend still appears weak, with the token down about 37% in the last three months.
This contrast is important. This rise does not fit into a strong upward trend, but is occurring within a broader downward trend. This raises a fundamental question: is this movement peaking or is the price simply encountering resistance before a new upward push? The charts suggest that the second option deserves attention.
The first breakout still indicates an upward direction.
The current rally did not come out of nowhere. On January 13, PUMP recorded a breakout from the handle of a broad cup-and-handle pattern. This pattern forms when the price rounds a base, pauses, and then breaks upward.
When the handle broke, the breakout projection pointed to the area of $0.0045. This target has not changed. Even after the recent rally, the price still moves in line with that initial forecast.
Do you want to receive more analyses on tokens like this? Subscribe to the Daily Crypto Newsletter from Editor Harsh Notariya here.
The key point is simple: the breakout structure remains valid. Nothing in the recent movement has invalidated it. The price still behaves as an asset typically does after a breakout. Additionally, another cup is forming on the chart.
What has changed is the speed. The price of PUMP moved quickly towards a resistance, and this is where the barrier emerges.
A second cup forms while momentum suggests consolidation.
After the January breakout, the price of PUMP did not collapse. Instead, it began to form a smaller cup structure on a lower timeframe. This is an important aspect.
The first cup had a downward-sloping neckline. The current formation, on the other hand, shows an upward-sloping neckline. This difference is significant: an upward-sloping neckline usually indicates improving demand, even if the price stalls.
At the moment, the price is testing resistance near the top of this smaller structure. This is the barrier. When the price meets resistance after a decisive movement, it often stalls not because buyers have disappeared, but because sellers finally emerge.
To understand whether this energy is accumulating or dissipating, momentum indicators are useful. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is helpful for measuring momentum. During the current movement, the RSI appears to be pushing upward even as the price starts to slow down.
A hidden bearish divergence would be confirmed (price making a lower high and RSI making a higher high) if the next price candle of PUMP formed below $0.0031. Furthermore, a similar hidden bearish divergence was observed during the last handle consolidation that began on January 6.
Inflows signal consolidation, not a price reversal.
At the same time, the behavior of whales also supports this view. Large holders have reduced their balances by about 3.6%, bringing the total of whales to about 14.37 billion tokens. This sale occurred after the rally, not before.
This is relevant because the fact that whales sell after a price spike usually signals profit-taking, not panic selling. It often translates into a sideways movement instead of a trend reversal. Another signal of consolidation.
Exchange flow data tells a similar story. After two days of consistent outflows, PUMP recorded a sudden trend change towards net inflows, with about $900,000 deposited on exchanges. When tokens arrive on exchanges after a rally, it usually reflects short-term selling pressure. This aligns with the consolidation hypothesis and the behavior of whales.
Now the levels become crucial.
A retracement towards $0.0028 or even $0.0026 would still fit perfectly within the consolidation range. A drop below $0.0023 would weaken the structure. A decline below $0.0022 would completely invalidate the bullish scenario.
To the upside, the key level to watch is near $0.0032. A sharp breakout and maintenance above this area would indicate that the wall has been absorbed. In that case, both the original cup-and-handle breakout and the recent cup formation point to the same target near $0.0045.
This convergence is rare. Two distinct patterns indicating the same level usually reinforce the hypothesis, not weaken it.
Currently, the price of PUMP has encountered resistance at $0.0031.
However, everything surrounding that wall indicates that pressure is increasing, not decreasing. If the consolidation holds, the bounce of PUMP that follows could be stronger than the previous movement.
