$BTC is witnessing a massive asset transfer. While price action remains volatile, on-chain data reveals a deep behavioral divergence: small retail investors are panicking and selling off, while whales are absorbing supply at the highest rate in 4 months.
🔹 Accumulating Whale
The whale has added another 104,340 BTC (+1.5%) to its reserves recently.
The total supply held by whales has reached 7.17 million BTC, the highest level in 4 months.
Daily transactions exceeding $1 million have hit a 2-month peak, signaling active institutional accumulation happening beneath the surface.
🔹 Retail STH Panic Surrender
Short-term holders (STH) have realized losses exceeding $4.5 billion through consecutive declines.
The Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) index over 30 days has fallen below 0 for the first time since September 2023.
In history (2018, 2020, 2022), such sell-offs signal surrender, often preceding a long-term bottom formation and subsequent recovery.
🔹 Price Range War
STH selling below cost is creating supply resistance in the $95,000 – $100,000 range.
Whale buying power is protecting the $85,000 – $88,000 range.
BTC remains trapped in this range. A breakout requires STH selling pressure to be exhausted and Spot demand to return strongly to surpass $100k.
🔹 This is a typical accumulation phase disguised by volatility. Retail is leaving with losses, handing cheap coins to Whales.
Whale supply peaked for several months.
The new panic of STH could break the $85k floor.
Whales bought 104k BTC while retail sold at a loss of $4.5 billion. Are you surrendering with the crowd, or accumulating with the whales?
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