The price of Zcash has been under constant pressure for the past two weeks and the broader structure now clearly looks negative. Since mid-January, ZEC has entered a downward trend that could lead to a decline of 35% if key levels are broken.
At the same time, not all signals indicate the same thing. Some large holders are still buying more ZEC and short-term momentum indicators show that some buyers are still around, even though many have sold quickly. Whether Zcash stabilizes or continues to fall now depends on how the price reacts at some key levels.
The review shows a decline of 35%.
Zcash's daily chart shows that the downward trend started on January 16 when the price fell below the 414 USD zone. This movement showed that the price left the old consolidation range and confirmed a continued negative development.
Based on the height in the previous range, the flagpole, and the forecast, the structure points to a target near 266 USD. This means a potential decline of about 35% from the breakout point.
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This is no longer a theoretical risk. ZEC price has already moved according to the forecast, which shows that sellers are still controlling the trend.
However, the structure alone does not explain why the price has not fallen faster. Therefore, we need to look at momentum and capital flow.
Large owners are stepping in, but retail investors' confidence is weak.
Despite the negative structure, Zcash has had an increase of about 9% from the bottom on January 25. This increase follows changes in Chaikin Money Flow, CMF.
CMF measures whether large capital is flowing into or out of an asset by combining price and volume. When CMF rises, it indicates increased buying pressure, but when it falls below zero, it means net outflows.
Recently, ZEC's CMF broke above a falling trend line that has held for several weeks. This helped the price recover in the short term. However, CMF is still below the zero mark. Therefore, there is buying pressure, but not strong enough to reverse the entire trend.
A similar move above zero for CMF previously led to an increase of around 31%. Therefore, it is important for CMF to reach above zero to interrupt the decline.
Data from the blockchain shows more details. Over the last 24 hours, large and very large accounts increased their holdings by about 5.96% and 1.39%. Therefore, this accumulation explains why CMF is improving. Large holders seem to want to buy when the price is weak.
Retail investors' behavior is different. Data on spot flows shows that after a brief period of outflows, net inflows have increased during the recovery. Simply put: when the price rose about 9% from yesterday's low, selling pressure increased to nearly 9 million USD. Thus, many participants, likely retail investors, choose to reduce their holdings when the price rises instead of buying more.
This difference explains the mixed signals. Large holders support ZEC price at the edges, while retail investors are cautious and sell during rises.
MFI shows that buying during price declines remains, but the Zcash price structure dictates the rules.
Money Flow Index, MFI, provides a clearer picture. MFI measures buying and selling pressure by using both price and volume.
Between January 14 and January 25, ZEC price decreased, but MFI went up. This positive difference shows that investors bought when the price fell. Therefore, ZEC has not fallen straight down despite the negative trend. Previous charts and figures indicate that it is likely large investors who are behind these purchases.
But only buying power at price declines cannot change the trend forever. The price right now is more important than the indicators.
Downwards, 326 USD is an important area. This level corresponds with a significant Fibonacci area and has previously been a temporary floor. If the price clearly goes below 326 USD, the drop could accelerate towards 266 USD, which is the main target during the decline. If sellers push harder, even 250 USD may become relevant.
Upwards, Zcash price must first reclaim 402 USD.
That level was previously support and is now a short-term resistance. If the price goes above it, 449 USD will be the next important area. A clear breakout above 449 USD could eliminate much of the negative trend and show that the risk of price decline is decreasing.
