📊 Shocking data from the chart
Shows an amazing development in the XRP market over the past years:
Main Numbers
🔵 Total XRP Balance on all trading platforms: 1.644 billion XRP only (30-day moving average)
- 🔴 XRP Price: $1.85
Time Analysis
📈 Phase One (2017-2018): The Crazy Rise
- The balance started from less than 500 million XRP in mid-2017
- Jumped vertically to nearly 6 billion XRP in early 2018
- This coincided with a historic price jump that reached $5+ at the peak of the bubble
- Explanation: Speculators are depositing XRP on exchanges for sale at the peak
📉 Phase two (2018-2020): Continuous bleeding
- The balance gradually collapsed from 6 billion to less than 2 billion XRP
- The price fell from $5 to below $0.20 at the bottom of March 2020
- Explanation: Capital outflow, investors withdrawing their coins from exchanges after the crash
🔥 Phase three (2020-2021): Explosion of the bull market
- The balance jumped from 1.5 billion to 4.8 billion XRP (second highest peak)
- The price rose from $0.20 to $1.80+ in April 2021
- Critical note: The red circle on the chart indicates October 2018 at the lowest historical balance (~1.6 billion XRP), which is very close to the current level!
🎢 Phase four (2021-2023): Fluctuation and relative stability
- The balance stabilized between 2.5-4 billion XRP
- The price fluctuated between $0.30-$0.80
- Explanation: Accumulation market with SEC lawsuit against Ripple
📉🔥 Phase five (2024-2025): Current crash - the most dangerous!
- Dramatic collapse from 4+ billion to 1.644 billion XRP (lowest balance since 2018!)
- The price rose from $0.50 to $1.85-$3+ (recent peak)
- This contradiction is key 🔑
🔍 Why this crash in the balance?
✅ Positive scenario (most likely):
1️⃣ Mass withdrawal = Long-Term Accumulation
Logic:
- Smart investors do not leave their assets on exchanges unless they want to sell quickly
- Massive withdrawal means: "We do not intend to sell soon, we will keep it in cold wallets"
- The golden rule: "Not your keys, not your coins" (If you do not own the private keys, you do not own the coins)
Evidence:
- The balance decreased while the price rose! (from $0.50 to $1.85+)
- If it were a mass sale, the price would have collapsed with it
2️⃣ Available liquidity shortage = Potential upward pressure (Supply Squeeze)
Mechanism:
- When the coins available for sale on exchanges decrease:
- Any large buy request sharply raises the price
- Short sellers face the risk of being crushed
Historical comparison:
- In October 2018 (red circle), the balance reached 1.6 billion XRP
- After 2.5 years, the price rose from $0.17 to $1.96 (a jump of 1,050%!)
Logical question: Are we on the brink of repeating the same scenario?
3️⃣ Confidence in the Ripple/XRP ecosystem
Positive factors:
- Legal victory against SEC: In July 2023, the court ruled that XRP is not a security in secondary sales
- Increasing institutional adoption: Ripple is expanding its partnerships with banks and payment providers
- Launch of RLUSD (Ripple USD Stablecoin): A new stablecoin backed by Ripple, enhancing the uses of XRP
Logic:
- Confident investors do not leave their coins on exchanges (risk of hacking, bankruptcy, freezing)
- They withdraw to private wallets or use it in DeFi and XRPL applications
⚠️ Negative scenario (least likely but must be considered):
1️⃣ OTC selling (off-exchanges) by major whales
Mechanism:
- Whales are withdrawing XRP from exchanges
- They sell it in over-the-counter deals to avoid price impact
- This explains the balance drop without a price crash
Counter evidence:
- If this were true, we would see gradually increasing selling pressure
- The price rose by 270%+ during 2024-2025, which contrasts with the mass sale scenario
2️⃣ Migration to untracked exchanges or DeFi
Probability:
- Some investors are moving XRP to:
- Decentralized platforms (DEXs) like XRPL DEX
- Smaller exchanges are not included in the data
Impact:
- Data may not reflect the full picture
- But Glassnode covers all major exchanges, so this possibility is low
📈 Critical comparison: 2018 vs. 2025
| XRP balance on exchanges | ~1.6 billion | 1.644 billion | 🔥 Almost identical! |
| Price | $0.40-0.50 | $1.85 | ✅ Four times higher |
| The trend next | Jumped to $1.96 (April 2021) | ??? | 🚀 Possible repetition of the rise |
| Legal context | SEC lawsuit hasn't started yet | Concluded with a partial win for Ripple | ✅ Lower regulatory risks |
| Institutional adoption | Limited | Expanding (RippleNet, RLUSD) | ✅ Much stronger |
Conclusion:
If history repeats itself, a decline in the balance on exchanges with a rising price is a classic signal for the beginning of a strong bull market.
🔥 Shocking numbers: How much XRP was withdrawn?
Decline account:
- The recent peak (2024): ~4.5 billion XRP
- Balance December 2025: 1.644 billion XRP
- Difference: 2.856 billion XRP withdrawn 🚨
Market cap withdrawn:
- At a price of $1.85: 2.856 billion × $1.85 = $5.28 billion transferred from exchanges! 💰
What does this mean?
- This is not a sale, but a transfer of ownership
- Buyers do not want to sell soon → Long-term confidence signal
🎯 What should you do now?
✅ For current investors (Holders):
1. Do not rush to sell:
- History shows that a decline in the balance on exchanges preceded huge price jumps
- Wait for trend confirmation (sustainably break $3+)
2. Keep XRP in a private wallet:
- Use cold wallets like Ledger or Xumm Wallet
- Avoid leaving large assets on exchanges (risk of hacking/bankruptcy)
3. Monitor liquidity indicators:
- If the balance continues to decline + the price rises → Strong bullish signal
- If the balance suddenly starts to rise → it might be a sale from whales
🔍 For new traders:
1. Do not buy out of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out):
- Price at $1.85 is close to psychological resistance
- Wait for a correction to $1.50-1.60 for a safer entry
2. Study the fundamentals:
- Read about RippleNet, ODL (On-Demand Liquidity), RLUSD
- Understand the real use case for XRP (cross-border transfers)
3. Diversify your portfolio:
- Do not put more than 10-20% of your capital in one coin
- Highly volatile crypto
⚠️ For skeptics:
- Watch for large wallet movements (Whale Alert)
- Follow official Ripple news
- Pay attention to any new regulatory movements (SEC, U.S. Congress)
🌍 The broader context: XRP in 2026
Potential positive factors:
1. The new Trump administration:
- Trump announced his support for crypto
- Possible appointment of a crypto-friendly SEC chair → End of the regulatory war
2. Expansion of RLUSD adoption:
- The stablecoin Ripple could enhance the use of XRP as a liquidity bridge
- New partnerships with Asian and Middle Eastern banks
3. Global liquidity shortage:
- XRP decline on exchanges globally (not just one exchange)
- Similar to Bitcoin's case in 2020 (before the jump to $69k)
Potential risks:
1. Liquidation of Ripple positions:
- Ripple holds billions of XRP in escrow
- Any major liberation could affect the price
2. Competition from other networks:
- Stellar (XLM), Algorand, Hedera compete in the same field
- XRP's success is not guaranteed
3. General market fluctuations:
- If Bitcoin crashes, the entire market will be affected (including XRP)
📊 Final summary: Reading the signal
✅ Positive signals (dominant):
1. ✅ XRP balance on exchanges at the lowest level in 7 years
2. ✅ The price rose 270%+ during 2024-2025 despite the decline
3. ✅ Similar historical pattern to 2018 (before a 1000% jump)
4. ✅ Better legal context (partial win against SEC)
5. ✅ Increasing institutional adoption (RippleNet, RLUSD)
⚠️ Warning signals (least):
1. ⚠️ Potential OTC sales from whales (but uncertain)
2. ⚠️ General market fluctuations
3. ⚠️ Intense competition in the cross-border payments sector
🚀 Final expectation
If the 2018 pattern continues to repeat, XRP could be on the verge of a significant jump in 2026-2027.
Potential scenarios:
| 🚀 Strong rise | 60% | $5-8 | 12-18 months |
| 📊 Sideways volatility | 30% | $1.50-2.50 | 6-12 months |
| 📉 Sharp correction | 10% | $0.80-1.20 | 3-6 months |
Bullish scenario condition:
- Continued decline in the balance on exchanges ✅
- Broke the $3 level sustainably ✅
- No new regulatory crisis ✅
