BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) is sending signals that are difficult for investors to interpret. While the company expands its Ethereum staking business and strengthens its long-term financial strategy, the BMNR stock price is structurally weak, with patterns on the daily chart suggesting a decline.
BMNR stock has fallen approximately 21% in the last 6 months, and although it rebounded about 4% in the short term over the past 5 days, continuous downward pressure is evident. This contrasting movement is creating fundamental conflicts. While optimism due to staking is increasing, risks are highlighted on the charts. Currently, whether the bullish scenario can overcome the technical damage depends on a crucial price range.
Declining head and shoulders pattern in BMNR
A clear head and shoulders pattern is forming on BMNR's daily chart. This pattern typically appears after a long rise and indicates a loss of momentum among buyers. The left shoulder and head have already formed, and the right shoulder is being created near the recent high.
What further concerns about this pattern is where the stock price stands compared to trend indicators. BMNR is trading below all major exponential moving averages. The 20-day EMA (exponential moving average) had functioned as short-term support until the end, but that has been lost as well. If it falls below these moving averages, any rebound is likely to be short-lived and will not lead to a trend reversal.
The neckline of this pattern is slightly downward sloping, which is a factor accelerating the risk of decline. Since it is being led by sellers, if this neckline breaks, there is a possibility of a further 33% decline, and the six-month downtrend may continue. Although there have been positive news regarding staking, this is the expected technical environment.
This tension draws attention to the trends in capital inflow—whether new purchases can actually support the stock.
Ethereum staking supports capital inflow but correlation is a risk.
The expansion of BitMine's Ethereum staking business is currently the strongest upward factor supporting BMNR shares. In staking, tokens are locked, serving as a signal for continuous yields and long-term orientation (not short-term speculation). Therefore, even if the chart structure is weak, the background for not accelerating selling pressure is believed to be a certain number of positive views related to staking.
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Capital liquidity indicators also reflect this optimism. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks the inflow and outflow of investment funds, is approaching a downward trendline. This indicates that even with the BMNR stock price weak, there is an increase in buying pressure beneath the surface.
However, this signal itself is not new. A similar CMF pattern appeared earlier this month, but ultimately no follow-up movement was seen, resulting in a sharp decline. For this signal to be valid this time, the CMF must first break above the trendline and recover the zero line. Without these conditions, capital inflows cannot be deemed decisive.
Correlation is also a risk factor. BMNR has a moderately high positive correlation coefficient of about 0.51 with Ethereum. This means that if Ethereum weakens, the impact is likely to ripple through to BMNR. At the time of writing, Ethereum is down 2.5% daily; if the weakness in ETH continues, capital inflows may be suppressed, and attempts to break above the CMF may falter.
Therefore, movements at important levels of stock prices will ultimately serve as the basis for judgment.
BMNR stock price, 30 dollars is the dividing line between stabilization and collapse.
Currently, all focus is concentrated on one level. Around 30 dollars is one of the important support lines. The BMNR stock price briefly fell below this level at the beginning of January but quickly reclaimed it, demonstrating demand at the same level. If 30 dollars is maintained, the possibility of a recovery of the 20-day EMA for BitMine also emerges.
Conversely, if it clearly falls below 30 dollars, 25 dollars will be the next target for lower prices. If this level is breached, the head and shoulders decline will be confirmed, expanding the potential for a drop to the 19 dollar range.
Sustaining 30 dollars does not mean immediate recovery. However, it can avoid structural damage. To negate the bearish pattern, BMNR shares need to reclaim 34 dollars and stabilize around the right shoulder. It is also required to break above the major moving averages again, but in recent weeks, the stock price has not been able to achieve that.
BitMine has been building a strong staking position in Ethereum for several months. This strategy continues to attract long-term capital inflows. However, in the short term, the charts still take precedence.
Unless the level of 30,000 dollars is clearly maintained, the risk of a significant decline remains, no matter how strong the staking story becomes.
