$DUSK The recent surge has been quite strong. Now we will analyze it from three dimensions: technical aspects (market games), news (narrative implementation), and fundamentals (the combination of Web3 and compliant finance).

1. Core point: Why now? (Narrative and fundamentals)

The essence of this wave of DUSK's market is the realization of the 'compliant privacy (RegDeFi)' narrative, combined with the strong expectations for the mainnet launch.

  • The biggest catalyst - Mainnet and EVM compatibility (DuskEVM): According to publicly available market information (early January 2026), DUSK has just completed the key launch actions of its mainnet and launched DuskEVM.

    • Significance for Developers: This means that developers can directly migrate dApps from Ethereum while utilizing Dusk's native privacy features (Zero-Knowledge Proofs).

  • The 'Compliance' moat of RWA (Real World Assets): This is DUSK's hardest logic. The European MiCA legislation (Crypto Asset Market Regulation Act) has been fully implemented; the biggest obstacle for institutions to enter Web3 is the 'contradiction between privacy and compliance'—institutions cannot trade strategies naked on public chains (requiring privacy), but must also meet audit requirements (requiring compliance).

    • DUSK's Citadel Protocol and ZK Proof are precisely the solutions to this pain point:"Transactions are verifiable, but data is not public".

    • NPEX Cooperation: DUSK's cooperation with the regulated Dutch exchange NPEX means it is no longer a useless token but possesses real capabilities as a securities tokenization infrastructure.

2. Chart and Market Analysis (Technical Depth)

Combining Binance's 4-hour K-line chart, there are several details with significant signaling implications:

  • Anomaly in Funding Rate:

    • Key Data: The upper right corner of the chart shows the funding rate as -0.2687%.

    • In-depth Interpretation: This is an extremely exaggeratednegative funding rate. It means that at this moment, the market isheavily crowded with short sellers, and shorts are paying huge interest to longs.

    • Short Squeeze Warning: With such a high negative funding rate occurring against the backdrop of a sharp price surge (+123%), it indicates that a large number of retail investors or quantitative strategies are 'shorting at the top,' but this is oftenfuel. As long as the long positions maintain the price without falling, shorts will be forced to cover their positions due to payment of funding rates or insufficient margin, further pushing up the coin price.This is a typical 'squeeze-up' pattern.

  • Moving Average System and Divergence Rate:

    • MA7 (0.196), MA25 (0.120), MA99 (0.073) present a perfect bullish arrangement, and the opening is extremely large.

    • Risk Point: The price (0.267) is seriously deviating from MA99, with an excessive divergence rate. Although there is a short-term squeeze momentum, from a technical perspective, such vertical surges (Parabolic Run) are usually unsustainable, and a sharp pullback is inevitably needed to correct the moving average divergence.

  • Volume Coordination:

    • The massive volume released at the bottom (the trading volume bar is extremely high) supported this breakthrough, indicating that large funds have completed accumulation and turnover in the 0.10-0.15 range.

3. What comes next? (Trend Prediction)

Scenario One: Squeeze accelerates, sprinting to new highs (short-term probability 60%)

  • Logic: If the negative funding rate does not correct, the rise will continue. As long as the funding rate remains below -0.1%, the main force will have the motivation to keep pushing up, triggering stop-loss orders for the shorts above.

  • Target: It may inertia sprint towards the integer points of $0.30 - $0.35 (also a psychological resistance level).

  • Operational Strategy: If you are a holder, you can closely monitorthe MA7 on the 4-hour level. As long as the closing price does not break MA7, do not easily exit; once it breaks, it may signal the end of the squeeze.

Scenario Two: Positive news lands, deep pullback (medium-term risk)

  • Logic: "Buy the rumor, sell the news." The mainnet has gone live, and the biggest short-term benefits have been realized. If there are no subsequent announcements of large institutional entries to sustain it, profit-taking (with chips already up 5 times from 0.05) will likely choose to cash in.

  • Price Level: Support level for pullbacks is $0.20 (previous platform) and $0.15 (strong support).

4. Summary and Recommendations

  1. Trading Perspective: Currently in the emotional game phase. Do not attempt to guess the top and short (the negative funding rate is too high, with large wear and easy liquidation). If you hold spot, now is the time to enjoy the bubble, but it is recommended to set a trailing stop (e.g., exit if it breaks MA7).

  2. Technical/Research Perspective: It is recommended to study DUSK's Repo and DuskEVM documentation. If it can indeed run the path of 'compliance privacy RWA,' it may become the 'institutional version of Ethereum' in the next cycle, and the current price may just be the foothill.

One-sentence judgment: In the short term, watch for funding rate short squeeze (still can surge), be wary of profit-taking in the medium term, and look for real data on RWA institutional implementation in the long term.

Disclaimer: The market has risks; the analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.