🚨 Note upfront: Break the 'old thinking' in your mind.
If you are an old hand in the crypto circle, you must have heard of the 'Four-Year Curse':
2014: Crash (Bear Market)
2018: Crash (Bear Market)
2022: Crash (Bear Market)
2026: ???
Logically, 2026 should be a 'Big Bear Market', right? Everyone should be escaping, right?
Completely wrong.
Top institutions on Wall Street (Standard Chartered Bank, Bitwise, Ark Invest) have surprisingly consistent reverse predictions this year: In 2026, Bitcoin will not only avoid a crash but will also break historical patterns, potentially hitting new highs of $150,000 - $200,000.
Why has the 'script' changed this time? Let me explain it clearly in plain language today.
1. The market has changed: it was once 'retail investors cutting each other,' now it is 'gods fighting each other.'
In the past, the Bitcoin market was a group of retail investors bargaining in a market, where whoever had the loudest voice would win.
Now the Bitcoin market is world-class consortiums competing for gold.
💡 Case study: The gold-eating beast called 'MicroStrategy'
You may have heard of MicroStrategy. By this year (2026), they have already acquired nearly 700,000 Bitcoins.
What does this mean?
There are only a total of 21 million Bitcoins.
This company alone took away 3.3%.
Moreover, they are 'buying only, not selling.'
This has led to a terrifying consequence: there aren't enough Bitcoins available for sale in the market.
In the past, if you wanted to buy coins, you could buy them casually at exchanges. Now, the coins at exchanges are being vacuumed up by these big institutions. This is called 'supply exhaustion.' When everyone wants to buy but there is no inventory at the counter, what will happen to the price? It will skyrocket.
2. The three 'wealth codes' of 2026
Why is 2026 considered a key year? Let's see what the big players are betting on.
1. Institutions' 'infinite bullets'
Standard Chartered's recent report is very straightforward: conservatively estimating $150,000 by 2026.
The reason is simple: the American ETF has already opened the floodgates. Pension funds and insurance companies, which hold trillions of dollars, have just begun to move that 1% of money into Bitcoin. This flow has only just started.
2. The rise of 'digital gold'
Cathie Wood's Ark Invest has a more aggressive view. She believes Bitcoin is transitioning from a 'speculative tool' to a 'safe-haven asset.'
Looking at 2025, gold is performing well amidst chaos, which puts some pressure on Bitcoin. But by 2026, as young people take over wealth, Bitcoin is stealing market share from gold.
Gold: Because it is physical, it is hard to carry and difficult to divide.
Bitcoin: If you need to escape or transfer assets globally, Bitcoin is the only choice.
3. Is the national team entering the market?
This is the biggest 'ghost story' (good news) of the year. It is now rumored that certain sovereign countries are secretly issuing bonds to buy Bitcoin. Once a G7 country announces Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, the price won't just be counted in 'ten thousands'; it may surge instantly.
3. Future market prediction: What should ordinary people do?
Based on the current market (Bitcoin price fluctuating between $110,000 and $120,000), the upcoming script is very likely to be as follows:
Phase one (now - mid-2026): Gradual upward movement
Institutions will use various bad news (like regulatory scares or even war panic) to crash the market. Remember: they are tricking you into giving up your hard-earned chips. They want to throw you off the bus before it takes off.
Phase two (second half of 2026): Violent surge
When supply truly runs out, even a slight buying pressure can skyrocket the price. At this point, you will see those who are still hesitating start to chase prices madly.
🛑 Beginner's survival guide (must-read)
Don't touch contracts (leverage)!
Institutional gods fighting will lead to extreme volatility. A needle could drop 20%, then rise to a new high. If you are leveraged, you will die before dawn. Only buy spot, hold and don't move.
Don't randomly buy altcoins!
This bull market is the 'Bitcoin bull market.' Many altcoins (small cryptocurrencies) may not outperform Bitcoin at all and could even go to zero. For beginners, Bitcoin (BTC) is the safest Noah's Ark.
Dollar-cost averaging is the way to go.
Don't think about buying at the bottom. Every month when you get paid, take a portion of spare money to buy a little, no matter the price. By the end of 2026, you will thank your current self.
📝 Conclusion: The last bus.
Today's Bitcoin is like the houses in Beijing's second ring road 20 years ago.
At that time, you thought it was expensive (several thousand per square meter), and felt there was a bubble.
Looking back now, that was the last chance for ordinary people to cross class barriers.
2026 may be the last year for Bitcoin to complete its transformation from 'geek toy to global currency.' The doors are being welded shut; those who haven't boarded yet, hurry up.
