The Midnight (NIGHT) token from Cardano started its journey strong, but its momentum is now no longer aligned. The price of NIGHT remains up nearly 300% from its lowest level since launch. In the last seven days, this token is still up about 70%. But the atmosphere is changing quickly.
In just the last 24 hours, the price of NIGHT has fallen by about 10% and is now trading around US$0.095.
This correction is important because it appears alongside various signals below the surface. Some data shows ongoing accumulation by major players.
Other data actually indicates increasing selling pressure, especially from inflows to exchanges that may be related to the airdrop. As January 2026 approaches, the next movements will depend more on whether large funds continue to flow in, rather than just market euphoria.
Large wallets are accumulating Midnight, but the supply of Midnight on exchanges is rising.
On-chain holder data shows a clear behavioral difference.
The balance of NIGHT on exchanges has sharply increased in the last 24 hours. Holdings on exchanges have increased by 17.97%, bringing the total exchange balance to around 166.14 million NIGHT tokens. This increase strongly indicates heightened selling activity.
Want insights on tokens like this? Subscribe to the Daily Crypto Newsletter from Editor Harsh Notariya here.
Considering the recent airdrop and phased distribution of Midnight, most of this flow likely comes from early recipients sending tokens to exchanges to realize profits.
At the same time, mega whales are doing the opposite.
The top 100 addresses increased their holdings by 1.52% in the last 24 hours, even as prices fell. This is equivalent to about 3.6 million NIGHT tokens added on that red day.
In the last seven days, these mega whales have added ownership of more than 5.6%, continuing to buy both during corrections and when prices rise, as prices have increased by nearly 70%.
This difference is very important. The exchange inflow shows short-term selling pressure often coming from retail traders. Meanwhile, mega whale accumulation indicates a long-term position.
As January 2026 approaches, the balance between these two forces will be more important than just the main price movements.
Capital Flow and Momentum Indicate Big Money is Still the Most Influential
This whale data is not the only one. It aligns with what is shown by capital flow and momentum indicators on the chart.
We start with On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV tracks whether volume is entering or exiting an asset. On the 4-hour chart, OBV has corrected along with prices over the last 24 hours. This indicates that short-term buying pressure is starting to weaken. For now, the future price of NIGHT heavily depends on whether OBV remains above the trend line.
But the weakness of the OBV alone does not depict the entire situation.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) adds an important layer. CMF measures whether big money is entering or leaving the market.
The CMF moved above the zero line on December 20 and has remained positive since then. Although flat over the last day, this indicator has not declined. More importantly, between December 22 and 23, the price of NIGHT fell on the 4-hour chart but the CMF continued to rise. This is a bullish divergence.
This indicates that although prices are weakening, large-capacity wallets are still absorbing supply behind the scenes.
This strengthens Nansen's data showing that mega whales are adding positions when prices drop, even though the balance on exchanges continues to rise.
One Metric Showing the Importance of Big Money
VWAP, or Volume-Weighted Average Price, helps connect all these signals. VWAP is the average price paid, calculated based on volume, and often serves as a guide for short-term trends. Since December 22, NIGHT has fallen below the VWAP and has yet to reclaim it. This indicates short-term weakness and explains why price momentum has been hindered.
It seems that a scenario exactly like this has happened before. On December 15, NIGHT was also traded below the VWAP. At that time, the CMF started to rise from negative territory, indicating that incoming capital was increasing. Once the CMF strengthened, the price quickly reclaimed the VWAP and continued to rise higher. The increase became more aggressive as the CMF moved above the zero line.
Histories like this are very important. For new tokens, price drops below the VWAP are actually common in the early distribution phase. What determines the outcome is not just the VWAP, but whether capital flows support recovery, as has happened before.
Simply put, short-term traders are starting to step back (perhaps taking profits), but big players are still staying put. As long as the CMF remains positive and whales continue to buy when prices fall, the current weakness resembles consolidation rather than a major trend change.
This is why large fund flows remain a key factor as January 2026 approaches.
Derivatives and NIGHT Price Movements Determine the January 2026 Risk Zone
With the pace of capital flow slowing down, derivative positions are becoming increasingly important as January approaches.
Liquidation data for the next 7 days shows the market is still dominated by long positions. On Binance, long position liquidation exposure is nearing US$3.6 million, while short positions are around US$2.9 million. This gap has indeed decreased after the recent price drop, but long positions are still larger than shorts.
This situation makes the setup fragile.
If the price of NIGHT continues to weaken and remains below the VWAP, long positions become vulnerable. If the price drops to around US$0.08, it is likely to trigger forced liquidations and add downward pressure. This scenario aligns with weakening OBV and stagnant CMF.
Key price levels on the 12-hour timeframe clarify the January map:
US$0.101 is the first level that NIGHT must reclaim. If the price cleanly breaks above it, immediate pressure will decrease.
US$0.120 is the key confirmation level. If the daily close is above it, NIGHT re-enters the price discovery phase, and the current weakness will no longer apply.
US$0.071 remains the most important support below. If this level is breached, the possibility of prices dropping deeper to US$0.057 and US$0.040 will open up.
For January 2026, the path is simple. If whales continue to accumulate, CMF strengthens again, and the price of NIGHT breaks above the VWAP, prices could stabilize and then attempt to expand into the next phase. However, if fund support disappears while leverage remains dominated by longs, the market risks experiencing a reset due to liquidations before a truly strong trend emerges.
