After the release of June CPI data, market confidence in the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September remains unchanged, with the probability of a rate cut maintained at 60%. Although Federal Reserve officials have taken a tough stance, emphasizing that tariffs could push up inflation, the market has already placed bets on easing policy in advance.

The resilience of the labor market and uncertainty around tariffs may delay the rate cut, but if CPI remains moderate, the Federal Reserve may be forced to align with market expectations.