#白银 #XAG_USD $BTC $ETH $XAG
Let's talk about the deeper meaning behind the sharp rise in silver prices. First, most people have a misconception: they believe silver is not scarce because it is a by-product mineral, with only 20% of silver coming from primary silver mines. However, what makes silver scarce is precisely the declining output of its primary host minerals—copper, tin, and aluminum. Companies are unwilling to incur losses just for the small amount of silver produced as a by-product, which creates a self-reinforcing cycle.
1. Silver mine output is declining, naturally increasing the cost of extracting silver.
2. As a by-product, the decline in output of primary minerals like copper, tin, and aluminum also raises mining costs. Companies won't risk losses just to extract a small amount of silver.
3. Silver is a crucial industrial material. Silver paste is widely used in photovoltaics, semiconductors, and new energy technologies, with broad applications and high demand. Therefore, regardless of whether silver prices rise or fall, photovoltaic companies must continue purchasing silver materials.
4. Silver also has safe-haven properties similar to gold. When geopolitical tensions rise or regional conflicts intensify, large amounts of capital tend to flow into precious metals as a safe haven.
5. The most significant long-term factor affecting silver prices is that the top three silver-producing countries—Mexico, China, and Peru—produce a combined total of 31,600 tons annually, while global silver consumption reaches 36,200 tons. This results in a supply gap of 4,633 tons, placing silver in a state of clear oversupply. Moreover, production is expected to decline further over time, while demand will continue to grow due to large-scale industrial development. This persistent supply-demand imbalance has driven silver prices into a short squeeze situation.
In summary, silver's usage will continue to expand with technological advancement across industries such as high-tech, aerospace, semiconductors, and more. Meanwhile, production cannot increase due to rising costs, leading to steadily rising prices driven by its industrial value, scarcity, and safe-haven appeal.