๐งญ Scenario Analysis โ Gold, Stocks, and Cryptocurrencies
The daily chart of PAXG (digital gold), where each token equals one troy ounce of gold, shows a strong upward trend since August 2025 (chart at the end of the post). This significantly stretched movement raises a warning for the risk of a more intense correction, possibly between 20% and 30%.
Historically, gold acts as a protective asset during periods of economic and geopolitical instability โ and currently, we are facing both factors on a global scale.
The outlier:
Even with gold in strong rise, risk assets are also continuing to rise. The Russell 2000, an index representing smaller capitalization and higher risk companies, is at an all-time high (chart at the end of the post), which would normally be contradictory to the movement of gold.
The same occurs with the S&P 500, the main thermometer of the American economy, which also records historical highs (chart at the end of the post).
Dollar falling, butโฆ
The dollar has reached its lowest level since 2022, which theoretically would favor the appreciation of Bitcoin and altcoins. However, BTC continues to face strong resistance in the region of US$ 90.000, remaining below historical highs.
Additional risk factors:
Uncertainties about new interest rate cuts in the US. High risk of a new shutdown of the American government. Persistent geopolitical tensions. Unpredictable tariffs and trade policies.
Summary of the current dilemma:
Protective assets (gold) and risk assets (stocks) at historical highs; Dollar falling, but crypto assets lack the strength to break resistances; Highly uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment;
โ ๏ธ Thus, in the current scenario, the most prudent strategy is a conscious diversification of assets (not scattering). In markets close to historical peaks, the risk of buying at the top increases, keeping in mind that corrections and pullbacks are part of the natural cycle of markets.
No asset rises or falls forever.
#S&P500
#Russell2000 #PAXG