Bitcoin's recent drop to $81,314 appears to be a healthy correction rather than a structural breakdown, based on both technical indicators and on-chain positioning data. Despite the sharp selloff triggering $1.5 billion in total liquidations,
$BTC is holding the critical $82,000-$85,000 support zone that analysts view as the line between correction and trend reversal.
The Relative Strength Index dropped into the low 30s, signaling oversold conditions where selling pressure typically exhausts itself. The MACD histogram is contracting, suggesting downside momentum is weakening even though the indicator remains negative. Importantly, long-term holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) stayed above zero, meaning longer-duration holders remain in profit. Only short-term holders—those who bought recently—have slipped into unrealized loss, a pattern that often precedes recoveries as weak hands exit and smart money accumulates.
Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader described the current phase using a familiar playbook: "Brutal flush. Broken confidence. Quiet accumulation. That's when smart money steps in." His thesis emphasizes that major rallies rarely begin when optimism is high—instead, they emerge when confidence is broken and price stabilizes quietly, allowing institutional capital to build positions without chasing momentum.
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