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美國政府本月關門機率暴漲到 77%！
Polymarket 現在 yes 賠率直逼 80%。
政府關門 = 股票幣圈又要爆跌了？短期恐慌難免，但歷史上 shutdown 往往是短期 dip 後大反彈。
押那邊？Polymarket 上押 NO？！
#polymarket
Polymarket 現在 yes 賠率直逼 80%。
政府關門 = 股票幣圈又要爆跌了？短期恐慌難免，但歷史上 shutdown 往往是短期 dip 後大反彈。
押那邊？Polymarket 上押 NO？！
#polymarket
🇺🇸 MACRO ALERT: U.S. Government Shutdown Risk Rising
The U.S. government could face another shutdown in just 6 days.
📊 Polymarket odds now show a 78% chance of a shutdown, and the probability keeps climbing.
🧠 What’s happening? • Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer says Democrats will vote NO on the funding bill
• Democrats oppose provisions related to DHS & ICE
• Republicans want to expand funding and authority
• No compromise yet — time is running out
⏳ Deadline:
Government funding expires on January 30, 2026.
If Congress fails to pass the remaining bills, a shutdown begins automatically.
📉 Why markets care: • The last shutdown lasted 43 days
• It hurt economic growth and confidence
• Increases risk-off sentiment across stocks & crypto
⚠️ Without a deal on ICE-related funding, there may not be enough votes to prevent another shutdown.
Market takeaway:
Rising macro uncertainty = higher volatility. Traders should stay cautious and avoid over-leverage.
#USShutdown #MacroNews #CryptoMarket #Polymarket #BinanceSquare
The U.S. government could face another shutdown in just 6 days.
📊 Polymarket odds now show a 78% chance of a shutdown, and the probability keeps climbing.
🧠 What’s happening? • Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer says Democrats will vote NO on the funding bill
• Democrats oppose provisions related to DHS & ICE
• Republicans want to expand funding and authority
• No compromise yet — time is running out
⏳ Deadline:
Government funding expires on January 30, 2026.
If Congress fails to pass the remaining bills, a shutdown begins automatically.
📉 Why markets care: • The last shutdown lasted 43 days
• It hurt economic growth and confidence
• Increases risk-off sentiment across stocks & crypto
⚠️ Without a deal on ICE-related funding, there may not be enough votes to prevent another shutdown.
Market takeaway:
Rising macro uncertainty = higher volatility. Traders should stay cautious and avoid over-leverage.
#USShutdown #MacroNews #CryptoMarket #Polymarket #BinanceSquare
Maximous-Cryptobro:
Ordinary Americans can't get a vacation so easily 🥴
🚨 BREAKING: The odds of U.S. government shutdown by January 31 have surged sharply 📈 — with Polymarket pricing roughly a 75–80% likelihood after recent political turbulence. (yellow.com)
This spike comes amid intense political fallout from a fatal federal Border Patrol shooting in Minneapolis that has ignited protests, raised questions about federal enforcement tactics, and heightened partisan conflict over funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) 🇺🇸. (Reuters)
Senate Democrats, citing concerns about DHS policy and federal actions, have signaled opposition to advancing the DHS appropriations bill — a key part of the larger funding package — unless reforms are included 🏛️⚖️. Without agreement by the end of this month, a partial shutdown becomes likely ⏰. (washingtonpost.com)
A shutdown isn’t just politics — it’s real economic friction: delayed paychecks 💸, paused contracts ⚙️, slowed approvals 🛑, and market volatility. Historical shutdowns have had measurable GDP impact and sent workers home without pay 📉.
In previous cycles, markets first react in crypto and bonds before broader equities catch up 🔄 — something traders are watching closely.
#USShutdown #DHSFunding #Polymarket #CryptoMarkets #BinanceSquare
$BTC $XRP $ZKC
This spike comes amid intense political fallout from a fatal federal Border Patrol shooting in Minneapolis that has ignited protests, raised questions about federal enforcement tactics, and heightened partisan conflict over funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) 🇺🇸. (Reuters)
Senate Democrats, citing concerns about DHS policy and federal actions, have signaled opposition to advancing the DHS appropriations bill — a key part of the larger funding package — unless reforms are included 🏛️⚖️. Without agreement by the end of this month, a partial shutdown becomes likely ⏰. (washingtonpost.com)
A shutdown isn’t just politics — it’s real economic friction: delayed paychecks 💸, paused contracts ⚙️, slowed approvals 🛑, and market volatility. Historical shutdowns have had measurable GDP impact and sent workers home without pay 📉.
In previous cycles, markets first react in crypto and bonds before broader equities catch up 🔄 — something traders are watching closely.
#USShutdown #DHSFunding #Polymarket #CryptoMarkets #BinanceSquare
$BTC $XRP $ZKC
💥 U.S. SHUTDOWN RISK SURGES — MARKETS ON EDGE 🇺🇸📉
#USShutdown A potential U.S. government shutdown is rapidly becoming a real risk. Prediction markets are flashing red, with Polymarket now pricing the odds at 78% as political tensions escalate in Washington.
But that’s not the only shock the market is trying to digest.
At the same time, traders are reacting to: • Talk of 100% tariffs on Canadian imports 🇨🇦💣
• Renewed geopolitical chatter around the U.S. acquiring Greenland 🌍
• Rising policy uncertainty hitting global confidence
This cocktail of fiscal paralysis, trade aggression, and geopolitical noise is exactly the kind of setup that spikes volatility across all asset classes.
Risk assets hate uncertainty.
Safe havens wake up fast.
Liquidity gets defensive.
Expect sharper moves and faster reactions across: • Crypto
• Equities
• Commodities
• FX
When politics stalls and policy turns extreme, markets move first.
$BTC | $AXS
#Polymarket #MacroRisk #Tariffs #Geopolitics
Follow RJCryptoX for real-time alerts.
But that’s not the only shock the market is trying to digest.
At the same time, traders are reacting to: • Talk of 100% tariffs on Canadian imports 🇨🇦💣
• Renewed geopolitical chatter around the U.S. acquiring Greenland 🌍
• Rising policy uncertainty hitting global confidence
This cocktail of fiscal paralysis, trade aggression, and geopolitical noise is exactly the kind of setup that spikes volatility across all asset classes.
Risk assets hate uncertainty.
Safe havens wake up fast.
Liquidity gets defensive.
Expect sharper moves and faster reactions across: • Crypto
• Equities
• Commodities
• FX
When politics stalls and policy turns extreme, markets move first.
$BTC | $AXS
#Polymarket #MacroRisk #Tariffs #Geopolitics
Follow RJCryptoX for real-time alerts.
💥 BREAKING:
Polymarket traders are betting big on chaos 🇺🇸
Over $4.2M is now staked on a 77% probability of another U.S. government shutdown by Jan 31.
That’s not noise — that’s conviction.
Markets are watching. Politics may soon price in volatility. 👀
#Polymarket #USGovernment #USGovShutdownEnd? #volatility
Polymarket traders are betting big on chaos 🇺🇸
Over $4.2M is now staked on a 77% probability of another U.S. government shutdown by Jan 31.
That’s not noise — that’s conviction.
Markets are watching. Politics may soon price in volatility. 👀
#Polymarket #USGovernment #USGovShutdownEnd? #volatility
🇺🇸 BREAKING: The probability of a U.S. government shutdown on Jan 31 has surged to 78% on Polymarket, up from just 9% yesterday, as budget negotiations hit a deadlock.
#USPolitics #Polymarket #Macro #breakingnews #CryptoMarket
#USPolitics #Polymarket #Macro #breakingnews #CryptoMarket
💥POTENCIALMENTE UMA PARALISAÇÃO NOS EUA ESTÁ CHEGANDO: POLYMARKET
$NOM
O governo dos EUA deve fechar o encerramento ainda este mês, à medida que as tensões políticas aumentam, com a Polymarket atualmente colocando as chances em 78%. $ZKC
Ao mesmo tempo, os mercados estão avaliando a possibilidade de tarifas de 100% sobre importações canadenses, falando sobre os EUA adquirirem a Groenlândia $AUCTION
#Polymarket #news #US #TRUMP #USIranMarketImpact
$NOM
O governo dos EUA deve fechar o encerramento ainda este mês, à medida que as tensões políticas aumentam, com a Polymarket atualmente colocando as chances em 78%. $ZKC
Ao mesmo tempo, os mercados estão avaliando a possibilidade de tarifas de 100% sobre importações canadenses, falando sobre os EUA adquirirem a Groenlândia $AUCTION
#Polymarket #news #US #TRUMP #USIranMarketImpact
🇺🇸 Риск приостановки работы правительства США резко увеличился
Если ещё накануне Polymarket оценивал вероятность шатдауна всего в 9%, то сегодня этот показатель подскочил почти до 80%.
#usa #Polymarket
Если ещё накануне Polymarket оценивал вероятность шатдауна всего в 9%, то сегодня этот показатель подскочил почти до 80%.
#usa #Polymarket
Asim Musaev:
Шотдаун ведь будет всего лишь до 31 января
🚨 😱倒數 5 天！美國政府停擺機率飆破 80%？Polymarket 炸鍋了！🇺🇸
剛消停不到三個月，華盛頓又要鬧「斷糧」了！目前距離 1/30 資金到期剩不到一週，Polymarket 上的玩家已經押注 80% 的機率政府會再次關門。這次兩黨互不相讓，火藥味比上次還濃！🔥$BTC $ETH $BNB
核心導火線：ICE 撥款僵局 🛑
這次引爆點是 1/24 的執法槍擊悲劇，讓民主黨大老舒默（Chuck Schumer）徹底硬起來，放話：「不改革移民局（ICE）預算，寧可讓政府關門！」
目前雙方針對這幾個點死磕：
• 民主黨： 要求削減 5,500 張拘留床位，強制加裝隨身攝影機 📷。
• 共和黨： 堅稱邊境安全不能退讓，拒絕再砍預算 🧱。
投資者該注意什麼？📈
雖然非核心部門關閉對 GDP 直接影響有限，但重點在於市場信心！
1. 避險情緒升溫： 聯邦員工領不到薪水、政府合約停擺，短期內風險資產波動會放大 🎢。
2. 預測市場風向標： Polymarket 的數據往往比新聞更快，80% 的機率不是開玩笑的。
川普上任後的第二次「停擺大戲」會上演嗎？大家子彈準備好，緊盯本週參議院投票！👀
#USGovernment #crypto #TrendingTopic #川普 #Polymarket
核心導火線：ICE 撥款僵局 🛑
這次引爆點是 1/24 的執法槍擊悲劇，讓民主黨大老舒默（Chuck Schumer）徹底硬起來，放話：「不改革移民局（ICE）預算，寧可讓政府關門！」
目前雙方針對這幾個點死磕：
• 民主黨： 要求削減 5,500 張拘留床位，強制加裝隨身攝影機 📷。
• 共和黨： 堅稱邊境安全不能退讓，拒絕再砍預算 🧱。
投資者該注意什麼？📈
雖然非核心部門關閉對 GDP 直接影響有限，但重點在於市場信心！
1. 避險情緒升溫： 聯邦員工領不到薪水、政府合約停擺，短期內風險資產波動會放大 🎢。
2. 預測市場風向標： Polymarket 的數據往往比新聞更快，80% 的機率不是開玩笑的。
川普上任後的第二次「停擺大戲」會上演嗎？大家子彈準備好，緊盯本週參議院投票！👀
#USGovernment #crypto #TrendingTopic #川普 #Polymarket
Binance BiBi:
好的！截至 11:56 UTC，BTC 約 $88,587 (24小時↓1.14%)，受避險情緒影響跌破關鍵支撐。ETH 約 $2,937 (24小時↓0.86%)，因資金流出而修正。BNB 約 $880 (24小時↓1.36%)，價格回調但受ETF申請消息支撐。投資有風險，請做好研究！
CoinQuestFamily, quick update...
US government shutdown is set for Jan 31, and market still acting like nothing’s wrong. That’s the risky part.
Polymarket showing 77% chance, but price isn’t reacting much yet. Usually calm before the move.
Main issue is DHS funding. Politics stuck. Bills delayed. Same old story.
Shutdown means delayed salaries, paused contracts, slow approvals. Economy doesn’t crash instantly it just gets messy and uncertain.
Watch the flow like always:
Bonds move first. Stocks follow. Crypto reacts the hardest.
Stay alert. These moves don’t give second chances.
#Polymarket_News #USGovernment #Polymarket #coinquestfamily
US government shutdown is set for Jan 31, and market still acting like nothing’s wrong. That’s the risky part.
Polymarket showing 77% chance, but price isn’t reacting much yet. Usually calm before the move.
Main issue is DHS funding. Politics stuck. Bills delayed. Same old story.
Shutdown means delayed salaries, paused contracts, slow approvals. Economy doesn’t crash instantly it just gets messy and uncertain.
Watch the flow like always:
Bonds move first. Stocks follow. Crypto reacts the hardest.
Stay alert. These moves don’t give second chances.
#Polymarket_News #USGovernment #Polymarket #coinquestfamily
🚨🇺🇸 ODDS DI SHUTDOWN GOVERNO USA A GENNAIO SALGONO AL 77% 🇺🇸🚨
I trader su Polymarket stimano ora una probabilità del 77% di un nuovo shutdown del governo statunitense prima del 31 gennaio, con un balzo del 67% in sole 24 ore.
Questo aumento è stato innescato da commenti di politici e dal blocco delle negoziazioni sul budget federale, la cui risoluzione provvisoria scade il 30 gennaio.
Le tensioni derivano principalmente da divergenze bipartisan: i repubblicani spingono per più fondi all'ICE e sicurezza ai confini, mentre i democratici bloccano i bill sul Dipartimento di Sicurezza Interna (DHS) dopo l'uccisione di un cittadino USA da parte di agenti federali a Minneapolis.
Il leader democratico al Senato Chuck Schumer ha dichiarato che non voterà per i finanziamenti DHS senza garanzie, rendendo necessaria una maggioranza di 60 voti che al momento manca.
Il Presidente Donald Trump ha accusato i democratici di responsabilità per un eventuale shutdown, aggravando il deadlock.
Un shutdown parziale fermerebbe servizi non essenziali come immigrazione, ricerche federali e approvazioni regolatorie, con furlough per migliaia di dipendenti pubblici.
Il mercato crypto reagisce con cautela: storicamente, shutdown possono causare anche cali del 5-10% su Bitcoin, ma rafforzano l'interesse per asset decentralizzati.
Polymarket, con oltre 5 milioni di volume, si conferma spesso barometro affidabile del sentiment politico.
Questi mercati predittivi aggregano saggezza collettiva, spesso anticipando i media tradizionali.
Con il Congresso diviso e il Speaker Mike Johnson alle prese con margini risicati, il rischio resta alto fino all'ultimo minuto.
#breakingnews #usa #ShutdownShowdown #Polymarket
I trader su Polymarket stimano ora una probabilità del 77% di un nuovo shutdown del governo statunitense prima del 31 gennaio, con un balzo del 67% in sole 24 ore.
Questo aumento è stato innescato da commenti di politici e dal blocco delle negoziazioni sul budget federale, la cui risoluzione provvisoria scade il 30 gennaio.
Le tensioni derivano principalmente da divergenze bipartisan: i repubblicani spingono per più fondi all'ICE e sicurezza ai confini, mentre i democratici bloccano i bill sul Dipartimento di Sicurezza Interna (DHS) dopo l'uccisione di un cittadino USA da parte di agenti federali a Minneapolis.
Il leader democratico al Senato Chuck Schumer ha dichiarato che non voterà per i finanziamenti DHS senza garanzie, rendendo necessaria una maggioranza di 60 voti che al momento manca.
Il Presidente Donald Trump ha accusato i democratici di responsabilità per un eventuale shutdown, aggravando il deadlock.
Un shutdown parziale fermerebbe servizi non essenziali come immigrazione, ricerche federali e approvazioni regolatorie, con furlough per migliaia di dipendenti pubblici.
Il mercato crypto reagisce con cautela: storicamente, shutdown possono causare anche cali del 5-10% su Bitcoin, ma rafforzano l'interesse per asset decentralizzati.
Polymarket, con oltre 5 milioni di volume, si conferma spesso barometro affidabile del sentiment politico.
Questi mercati predittivi aggregano saggezza collettiva, spesso anticipando i media tradizionali.
Con il Congresso diviso e il Speaker Mike Johnson alle prese con margini risicati, il rischio resta alto fino all'ultimo minuto.
#breakingnews #usa #ShutdownShowdown #Polymarket
🚨 #HEADLINE :🇺🇸 MORE ON JAN. 31st IMMINENT U.S GOV. SHUTDOWN
On Polymarket bets are sharply increasing that there will be a new shutdown in the U.S. before January 31. The probability of this is already estimated at 78%.
🇺🇸CNN writes that Democrats may block the government spending bill over objections to funding the Department of Homeland Security amid scandals over ICE raids against migrants.
————————-
On January 10, Trump himself said that there could be another shutdown on January 30. Last Thursday, he repeated his words again
👀Add to watchlist : $DUSK $MIRA $MINA
The previous U.S government shutdown left lots of uncertainty in the market, the market hates UNCERTAINTY !! Trad carefully this coming week.
#shutdown #Trump #Polymarket
On Polymarket bets are sharply increasing that there will be a new shutdown in the U.S. before January 31. The probability of this is already estimated at 78%.
🇺🇸CNN writes that Democrats may block the government spending bill over objections to funding the Department of Homeland Security amid scandals over ICE raids against migrants.
————————-
On January 10, Trump himself said that there could be another shutdown on January 30. Last Thursday, he repeated his words again
👀Add to watchlist : $DUSK $MIRA $MINA
The previous U.S government shutdown left lots of uncertainty in the market, the market hates UNCERTAINTY !! Trad carefully this coming week.
#shutdown #Trump #Polymarket
🚨 #HEADLINE : 🇺🇸 GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN EXPECTED JAN. 13TH
🇺🇸💰 Senate Democrats to shut down US government if DHS & ICE funding is included, following fatal shooting in Minneapolis that left a man dead, as he was seen struggling with the authorities.$SOMI
{future}(SOMIUSDT)
#US #USShutdown #Trump
🇺🇸💰 Senate Democrats to shut down US government if DHS & ICE funding is included, following fatal shooting in Minneapolis that left a man dead, as he was seen struggling with the authorities.$SOMI
{future}(SOMIUSDT)
#US #USShutdown #Trump
Політична криза у США поглиблюється — що це означає для ваших криптоактивів? 🚨
Станом на сьогодні, 25 січня 2026 року, ймовірність шатдауну (призупинення роботи) уряду США зросла до 77% на ринку прогнозів Polymarket. Це найрізкіший рух на політичних ринках платформи за останній час.
🛑 Чому ризик зростає?
Лідер демократів у cенаті Чак Шумер пообіцяв заблокувати великий пакет законопроєктів про бюджетні асигнування через суперечки навколо фінансування Міністерства внутрішньої безпеки. Це сталося після резонансної стрілянини в Міннеаполісі, що посилило напругу навколо імміграційної політики адміністрації Трампа.
⚖️ Вплив на регулювання крипторинку (CLARITY Act)
Політична невизначеність безпосередньо загрожує ключовому законопроєкту про регулювання крипторинку — CLARITY Act. Його розгляд вже відкладали, і тепер прийняття до 2027 року стає малоймовірним.
Нові деталі:
Поправки демократів: Сенатори-демократи, включаючи Елізабет Воррен, пропонують нові етичні поправки до законопроєкту, які забороняють чиновникам отримувати фінансову вигоду від криптопроєктів під час перебування на посаді. Це пов'язано зі звинуваченнями на адресу Дональда Трампа щодо його зв'язків із криптоплатформою World Liberty Financial.
Розкол в індустрії: Coinbase відкликала свою підтримку законопроєкту через положення, які обмежують прибутковість за стейблкоїнами. CEO Браян Армстронг вважає, що краще відсутність закону, ніж поганий закон.
Тиск банкірів: Американська асоціація банкірів зробила заборону прибуткових стейблкоїнів своїм головним пріоритетом на 2026 рік, побоюючись відтоку трильйонів доларів із традиційних депозитів.
🔎 Що далі?
Законопроєкт про структуру ринку цифрових товарів (CLARITY Act) від Сенатського комітету з питань сільського господарства планується до розгляду 27 січня, але без двопартійної підтримки. Це створює подальшу невизначеність та волатильність на ринку.
Слідкуйте за оновленнями та будьте готові до можливих коливань цін!
#CryptoNews #Polymarket #USA #CLARITYAct #BinanceSquare #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Regulation #Stablecoins #Shitcoins #Volatility #Трамп #Шумер #Криптовалюта #Регулювання #США
🛑 Чому ризик зростає?
Лідер демократів у cенаті Чак Шумер пообіцяв заблокувати великий пакет законопроєктів про бюджетні асигнування через суперечки навколо фінансування Міністерства внутрішньої безпеки. Це сталося після резонансної стрілянини в Міннеаполісі, що посилило напругу навколо імміграційної політики адміністрації Трампа.
⚖️ Вплив на регулювання крипторинку (CLARITY Act)
Політична невизначеність безпосередньо загрожує ключовому законопроєкту про регулювання крипторинку — CLARITY Act. Його розгляд вже відкладали, і тепер прийняття до 2027 року стає малоймовірним.
Нові деталі:
Поправки демократів: Сенатори-демократи, включаючи Елізабет Воррен, пропонують нові етичні поправки до законопроєкту, які забороняють чиновникам отримувати фінансову вигоду від криптопроєктів під час перебування на посаді. Це пов'язано зі звинуваченнями на адресу Дональда Трампа щодо його зв'язків із криптоплатформою World Liberty Financial.
Розкол в індустрії: Coinbase відкликала свою підтримку законопроєкту через положення, які обмежують прибутковість за стейблкоїнами. CEO Браян Армстронг вважає, що краще відсутність закону, ніж поганий закон.
Тиск банкірів: Американська асоціація банкірів зробила заборону прибуткових стейблкоїнів своїм головним пріоритетом на 2026 рік, побоюючись відтоку трильйонів доларів із традиційних депозитів.
🔎 Що далі?
Законопроєкт про структуру ринку цифрових товарів (CLARITY Act) від Сенатського комітету з питань сільського господарства планується до розгляду 27 січня, але без двопартійної підтримки. Це створює подальшу невизначеність та волатильність на ринку.
Слідкуйте за оновленнями та будьте готові до можливих коливань цін!
#CryptoNews #Polymarket #USA #CLARITYAct #BinanceSquare #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Regulation #Stablecoins #Shitcoins #Volatility #Трамп #Шумер #Криптовалюта #Регулювання #США
Friday US Shutdown Odds Hit 77% as BTC Targets $112K Breakout
The 77% Polymarket shutdown probability is currently forcing a massive shift in institutional BTC liquidity before the Friday deadline.
This stalemate is driving a shift toward BTC. Institutional interest is rising as market volatility prepares to peak.
Price Execution Levels
• Support Retest ($98,400): Expect a liquidity sweep of retail stop-losses before trend continuation.
• Squeeze Resistance ($104,200): Parabolic move potential as fiscal news reaches peak media saturation.
• Bullish Target ($112,000): Long-term inflection point for BTC entering six-figure territory.
Volatility is peaking. Tag a trader who needs to monitor these $BTC levels before the weekend. What is your conservative exit price?
#BTC #Binance #Crypto2026 #TradingStrategy #Polymarket
The 77% Polymarket shutdown probability is currently forcing a massive shift in institutional BTC liquidity before the Friday deadline.
This stalemate is driving a shift toward BTC. Institutional interest is rising as market volatility prepares to peak.
Price Execution Levels
• Support Retest ($98,400): Expect a liquidity sweep of retail stop-losses before trend continuation.
• Squeeze Resistance ($104,200): Parabolic move potential as fiscal news reaches peak media saturation.
• Bullish Target ($112,000): Long-term inflection point for BTC entering six-figure territory.
Volatility is peaking. Tag a trader who needs to monitor these $BTC levels before the weekend. What is your conservative exit price?
#BTC #Binance #Crypto2026 #TradingStrategy #Polymarket
Cảnh báo: Khả năng chính phủ Mỹ shutdown tăng vọt lên 77% trên #Polymarket – Deadline 30/1/2026
Polymarket vừa ghi nhận khả năng chính phủ Mỹ đóng cửa (government shutdown) trước ngày 31/1/2026 tăng đột biến lên 77% (từ mức thấp 45% trước đó), với khối lượng giao dịch lên đến 138.080 USD chỉ trong thời gian ngắn. Lý do: đàm phán ngân sách liên bang bị đình trệ, các nhà lập pháp hai đảng vẫn chưa đạt thỏa thuận funding bill.
Deadline sát nút:
Nếu không thông qua funding bill trước nửa đêm 30/1/2026 (thứ Sáu), chính phủ sẽ technical shutdown từ cuối tuần – kiểu đóng cửa ngắn ngày phổ biến gần đây (thường chỉ ảnh hưởng cuối tuần, mở lại thứ Hai nếu đạt thỏa thuận).
Nhưng nếu lưỡng đảng tiếp tục "không ưa nhau", shutdown có thể kéo dài như các đợt trước (2018-2019), ảnh hưởng lương công chức, dịch vụ công, và thị trường tài chính.
Tác động tiềm năng đến crypto & thị trường:
Ngắn hạn: Shutdown thường gây risk-off mạnh – nhà đầu tư bán tháo tài sản rủi ro (cổ phiếu, crypto). BTC có thể tụt sâu thêm (test 85-80k nếu kéo dài), outflows ETF tăng.
Vàng/bạc hưởng lợi: Là trú ẩn an toàn, vàng có thể tiếp tục breakout ATH (hiện 4.950 USD/oz), bạc tăng mạnh hơn (98,85 USD/oz).
Dài hạn: Nếu shutdown ngắn, thị trường hồi nhanh; kéo dài thì thanh khoản siết chặt, ảnh hưởng toàn cầu.
Đây là "technical shutdown" cuối tuần phổ biến, nhưng không gì loại trừ kịch bản xấu. Bạn nghĩ BTC sẽ dump tiếp hay vàng tiếp tục dẫn dắt? Hold hay đa dạng hóa? Comment bên dưới nhé! 📉🟡
#USShutdownEffect
Polymarket vừa ghi nhận khả năng chính phủ Mỹ đóng cửa (government shutdown) trước ngày 31/1/2026 tăng đột biến lên 77% (từ mức thấp 45% trước đó), với khối lượng giao dịch lên đến 138.080 USD chỉ trong thời gian ngắn. Lý do: đàm phán ngân sách liên bang bị đình trệ, các nhà lập pháp hai đảng vẫn chưa đạt thỏa thuận funding bill.
Deadline sát nút:
Nếu không thông qua funding bill trước nửa đêm 30/1/2026 (thứ Sáu), chính phủ sẽ technical shutdown từ cuối tuần – kiểu đóng cửa ngắn ngày phổ biến gần đây (thường chỉ ảnh hưởng cuối tuần, mở lại thứ Hai nếu đạt thỏa thuận).
Nhưng nếu lưỡng đảng tiếp tục "không ưa nhau", shutdown có thể kéo dài như các đợt trước (2018-2019), ảnh hưởng lương công chức, dịch vụ công, và thị trường tài chính.
Tác động tiềm năng đến crypto & thị trường:
Ngắn hạn: Shutdown thường gây risk-off mạnh – nhà đầu tư bán tháo tài sản rủi ro (cổ phiếu, crypto). BTC có thể tụt sâu thêm (test 85-80k nếu kéo dài), outflows ETF tăng.
Vàng/bạc hưởng lợi: Là trú ẩn an toàn, vàng có thể tiếp tục breakout ATH (hiện 4.950 USD/oz), bạc tăng mạnh hơn (98,85 USD/oz).
Dài hạn: Nếu shutdown ngắn, thị trường hồi nhanh; kéo dài thì thanh khoản siết chặt, ảnh hưởng toàn cầu.
Đây là "technical shutdown" cuối tuần phổ biến, nhưng không gì loại trừ kịch bản xấu. Bạn nghĩ BTC sẽ dump tiếp hay vàng tiếp tục dẫn dắt? Hold hay đa dạng hóa? Comment bên dưới nhé! 📉🟡
#USShutdownEffect
Seguitemi
Il rischio di un imminente shutdown del governo USA, previsto per il 31 gennaio 2026, ha innescato una nuova ondata di tensione nel mercato delle criptovalute.
Stallo al Senato: Nonostante la Camera abbia approvato un pacchetto di finanziamenti da 1.200 miliardi di dollari, i democratici al Senato minacciano di bloccare la legge a causa dei fondi destinati al Dipartimento della Sicurezza Internazionale (DHS).
Tensioni sociali: L'opposizione è legata alla gestione dell'ICE e a recenti incidenti che hanno coinvolto agenti federali in Minnesota.
Probabilità elevata: Le piattaforme di previsione come #Polymarket e #Kalshi i stimano attualmente una probabilità di #shutdown tra il 75% e il 78%
Sentiment in crisi: L'incertezza ha spinto il Crypto Fear and Greed Index verso la zona di "Extreme Fear" (Paura Estrema), riflettendo il timore degli investitori per una possibile contrazione della liquidità.
Prezzi in calo: Nelle ultime 24 ore, #bitcoin è sceso sotto gli 88.000 $. Anche #Ethereum e #xrp hanno registrato perdite significative (XRP -4%) mentre i trader monitorano i livelli di supporto chiave.
Correlazione con i dati macro: Uno shutdown sospenderebbe la pubblicazione dei dati sull'inflazione e sull'occupazione, lasciando la Federal Reserve e i mercati "al buio" proprio in vista della decisione sui tassi di interesse di questa settimana.
Foto di Andy Feliciotti su Unsplash
Il rischio di un imminente shutdown del governo USA, previsto per il 31 gennaio 2026, ha innescato una nuova ondata di tensione nel mercato delle criptovalute.
Stallo al Senato: Nonostante la Camera abbia approvato un pacchetto di finanziamenti da 1.200 miliardi di dollari, i democratici al Senato minacciano di bloccare la legge a causa dei fondi destinati al Dipartimento della Sicurezza Internazionale (DHS).
Tensioni sociali: L'opposizione è legata alla gestione dell'ICE e a recenti incidenti che hanno coinvolto agenti federali in Minnesota.
Probabilità elevata: Le piattaforme di previsione come #Polymarket e #Kalshi i stimano attualmente una probabilità di #shutdown tra il 75% e il 78%
Sentiment in crisi: L'incertezza ha spinto il Crypto Fear and Greed Index verso la zona di "Extreme Fear" (Paura Estrema), riflettendo il timore degli investitori per una possibile contrazione della liquidità.
Prezzi in calo: Nelle ultime 24 ore, #bitcoin è sceso sotto gli 88.000 $. Anche #Ethereum e #xrp hanno registrato perdite significative (XRP -4%) mentre i trader monitorano i livelli di supporto chiave.
Correlazione con i dati macro: Uno shutdown sospenderebbe la pubblicazione dei dati sull'inflazione e sull'occupazione, lasciando la Federal Reserve e i mercati "al buio" proprio in vista della decisione sui tassi di interesse di questa settimana.
Foto di Andy Feliciotti su Unsplash
🚨 Macro Alert: The Market is Mispricing Political Risk
While equity markets remain relatively calm, the prediction markets are flashing a red code. Polymarket now prices a US Government Shutdown by January 31 at 77%—a massive repricing of risk that traditional finance has yet to fully digest.
📉 The Catalyst: DHS Funding & Legislative Deadlock
The current stalemate isn't just political theater; it's structural. The dispute over DHS funding has become the fuse, and with political capital exhausted, the probability of a stop-gap measure is shrinking. We are moving from "negotiation" to "inevitable stall."
🧠 Deep Analysis: The Liquidity Lag
A shutdown is a direct hit to economic velocity. It halts federal paychecks, pauses government contract approvals, and introduces a friction layer to GDP growth.
Bond Markets: Expect yields to react first as the "risk-free" status of US debt gets tested by dysfunction.
Equities: Currently complacent. A realization of the shutdown could trigger a rapid repricing of Q1 earnings guidance.
Crypto: As the highest-beta asset class, crypto will likely see the most violent volatility. If liquidity tightens in traditional finance, the spillover effect often hits digital assets immediately.
The market is sleeping on a 77% probability event. When the alarm rings, the repricing will be instant.
Position accordingly.
#Macroeconomics #Bitcoin #Polymarket #USPolitics #TradingStrategy
$BTC
While equity markets remain relatively calm, the prediction markets are flashing a red code. Polymarket now prices a US Government Shutdown by January 31 at 77%—a massive repricing of risk that traditional finance has yet to fully digest.
📉 The Catalyst: DHS Funding & Legislative Deadlock
The current stalemate isn't just political theater; it's structural. The dispute over DHS funding has become the fuse, and with political capital exhausted, the probability of a stop-gap measure is shrinking. We are moving from "negotiation" to "inevitable stall."
🧠 Deep Analysis: The Liquidity Lag
A shutdown is a direct hit to economic velocity. It halts federal paychecks, pauses government contract approvals, and introduces a friction layer to GDP growth.
Bond Markets: Expect yields to react first as the "risk-free" status of US debt gets tested by dysfunction.
Equities: Currently complacent. A realization of the shutdown could trigger a rapid repricing of Q1 earnings guidance.
Crypto: As the highest-beta asset class, crypto will likely see the most violent volatility. If liquidity tightens in traditional finance, the spillover effect often hits digital assets immediately.
The market is sleeping on a 77% probability event. When the alarm rings, the repricing will be instant.
Position accordingly.
#Macroeconomics #Bitcoin #Polymarket #USPolitics #TradingStrategy
$BTC
Шатдаун 2026: Когда система «зависает», блокчейн продолжает работать
"It has to start somewhere
It has to start sometime
What better place than here?
What better time than now?"
Rage Against The Machine — Guerrilla Radio
Вашингтон снова на пороге отключения. Вероятность шатдауна на Polymarket взлетела до 79%, а дедлайн 30 января маячит всё отчетливее. Пока политики спорят о бюджетах и блокируют финансирование целых министерств, крипторынок готовится к волатильному танцу.
Почему это важно:
Пауза в данных: Шатдаун — это "черная дыра" для официальной статистики. CPI, отчеты по занятости и данные от регуляторов (SEC/CFTC) могут встать на паузу. Рынок ненавидит неопределенность, и это топливо для резких движений.
Тест на децентрализацию: Ethereum не требует одобрения Конгресса, чтобы обрабатывать транзакции. Пока госаппарат "уходит в отпуск", блокчейн работает 24/7. В такие моменты нарратив ETH как «цифрового актива вне политики» становится максимально осязаемым.
Ликвидность: Ожидание шатдауна часто давит на индекс доллара (DXY). Если доллар начнет слабеть, мы можем увидеть тот самый импульс в $ETH и $BTC , которого все ждут.
Я не гадаю, договорятся они или нет. Я смотрю на это как на стресс-тест системы. В 2019-м после шатдауна крипта показала отличный рост. История не всегда повторяется, но часто рифмуется.
Для тех, кто на Binance: следите за хедж-позициями и волатильностью в парах к стейблкоинам. Если система "зависнет", капитал будет искать выход.
Как считаете, шатдаун станет триггером для долгожданного прорыва ETH выше $3,300 или нас ждет панический выход в кэш?
#USShutdown #Crypto2026 #ETHMarketWatch #Polymarket
It has to start sometime
What better place than here?
What better time than now?"
Rage Against The Machine — Guerrilla Radio
Вашингтон снова на пороге отключения. Вероятность шатдауна на Polymarket взлетела до 79%, а дедлайн 30 января маячит всё отчетливее. Пока политики спорят о бюджетах и блокируют финансирование целых министерств, крипторынок готовится к волатильному танцу.
Почему это важно:
Пауза в данных: Шатдаун — это "черная дыра" для официальной статистики. CPI, отчеты по занятости и данные от регуляторов (SEC/CFTC) могут встать на паузу. Рынок ненавидит неопределенность, и это топливо для резких движений.
Тест на децентрализацию: Ethereum не требует одобрения Конгресса, чтобы обрабатывать транзакции. Пока госаппарат "уходит в отпуск", блокчейн работает 24/7. В такие моменты нарратив ETH как «цифрового актива вне политики» становится максимально осязаемым.
Ликвидность: Ожидание шатдауна часто давит на индекс доллара (DXY). Если доллар начнет слабеть, мы можем увидеть тот самый импульс в $ETH и $BTC , которого все ждут.
Я не гадаю, договорятся они или нет. Я смотрю на это как на стресс-тест системы. В 2019-м после шатдауна крипта показала отличный рост. История не всегда повторяется, но часто рифмуется.
Для тех, кто на Binance: следите за хедж-позициями и волатильностью в парах к стейблкоинам. Если система "зависнет", капитал будет искать выход.
Как считаете, шатдаун станет триггером для долгожданного прорыва ETH выше $3,300 или нас ждет панический выход в кэш?
#USShutdown #Crypto2026 #ETHMarketWatch #Polymarket
🚨 $NOM – BETTING MARKETS FLASH SHUTDOWN RISK! 💥
Over $4.2M staked on Polymarket, with odds now at 77% for another U.S. government shutdown by Jan 31. This isn't just noise — it's a real-time sentiment gauge pointing toward heightened political and fiscal risk.
📊 Market Impact:
Increased political uncertainty often fuels volatility in altcoins and risk assets.
Assets like $ZKC, $DUSK
, and $NOM
may see amplified moves as traders position ahead of the deadline.
⚠️ Key Takeaway:
Betting markets are signaling a high-probability disruption event. Macro traders are watching — expect potential volatility spikes as the deadline nears.
Trade with caution. Hedge if needed. This could get messy. ⚡📉
#NOM #Polymarket #GovernmentShutdown #USPolitics #Crypto
Over $4.2M staked on Polymarket, with odds now at 77% for another U.S. government shutdown by Jan 31. This isn't just noise — it's a real-time sentiment gauge pointing toward heightened political and fiscal risk.
📊 Market Impact:
Increased political uncertainty often fuels volatility in altcoins and risk assets.
Assets like $ZKC, $DUSK
, and $NOM
may see amplified moves as traders position ahead of the deadline.
⚠️ Key Takeaway:
Betting markets are signaling a high-probability disruption event. Macro traders are watching — expect potential volatility spikes as the deadline nears.
Trade with caution. Hedge if needed. This could get messy. ⚡📉
#NOM #Polymarket #GovernmentShutdown #USPolitics #Crypto
Shutdown risk just surged.
#Polymarket now shows a 75% chance of a government shutdown. Last time this happened, markets turned ugly fast, crypto didn’t escape the damage.
If history rhymes, volatility could be brutal. Stay sharp.
#Polymarket now shows a 75% chance of a government shutdown. Last time this happened, markets turned ugly fast, crypto didn’t escape the damage.
If history rhymes, volatility could be brutal. Stay sharp.
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