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🟡 Bitcoin price wobbles ahead of Fed’s rate decision
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
marchealo:
❤️❤️❤️
🚨 DERNIÈRE MINUTE
🇺🇸 LA MAISON BLANCHE A OFFICIELLEMENT REJETÉ LE PROJET DE LOI SUR LA STRUCTURE DU MARCHÉ DES CRYPTOMONNAIES.
LA PROPOSITION AVAIT POUR BUT DE RÉDUIRE LA MANIPULATION DU MARCHÉ ET DE CRÉER DES RÈGLES CLAIRES POUR LES CRYPTOMONNAIES.
Sans cela, l'incertitude augmente — et ce n'est pas bon signe pour le Bitcoin ni pour le marché en général.$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#btc
🇺🇸 LA MAISON BLANCHE A OFFICIELLEMENT REJETÉ LE PROJET DE LOI SUR LA STRUCTURE DU MARCHÉ DES CRYPTOMONNAIES.
LA PROPOSITION AVAIT POUR BUT DE RÉDUIRE LA MANIPULATION DU MARCHÉ ET DE CRÉER DES RÈGLES CLAIRES POUR LES CRYPTOMONNAIES.
Sans cela, l'incertitude augmente — et ce n'est pas bon signe pour le Bitcoin ni pour le marché en général.$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#btc
🚨 Bitcoin is dumping — but here’s what most people are missing:
This is NOT random.
This move is driven by:
👉 Liquidations of over-leveraged longs
👉 Fear hitting retail traders
👉 Risk assets reacting to hawkish tones from Federal Reserve
In simple words:
💥 Weak hands are being shaken out.
💥 Liquidity is being collected.
💥 Smart money waits for panic.
Let’s be real:
This looks like a liquidity sweep + fear phase, not the end of crypto.
Key zones to watch:
🟡 $58k–$55k → first major support
🟠 $52k → high-volume demand
🔴 $48k → deep panic zone (only if macro turns ugly)
Markets don’t crash because of news.
They crash to transfer coins from emotional traders to patient ones.
Remember:
❌ Panic sells bottoms
✅ Patience buys discounts
Zoom out. Breathe. Think in probabilities.
Are you watching from the sidelines…
or preparing for opportunity? 👇
#btc $BTC
This is NOT random.
This move is driven by:
👉 Liquidations of over-leveraged longs
👉 Fear hitting retail traders
👉 Risk assets reacting to hawkish tones from Federal Reserve
In simple words:
💥 Weak hands are being shaken out.
💥 Liquidity is being collected.
💥 Smart money waits for panic.
Let’s be real:
This looks like a liquidity sweep + fear phase, not the end of crypto.
Key zones to watch:
🟡 $58k–$55k → first major support
🟠 $52k → high-volume demand
🔴 $48k → deep panic zone (only if macro turns ugly)
Markets don’t crash because of news.
They crash to transfer coins from emotional traders to patient ones.
Remember:
❌ Panic sells bottoms
✅ Patience buys discounts
Zoom out. Breathe. Think in probabilities.
Are you watching from the sidelines…
or preparing for opportunity? 👇
#btc $BTC
$BTC
Bitcoin ($BTC ) is currently trading at $65,750.37, down 11.18% from its previous close. The market sentiment is bearish, with many analysts predicting a potential increase in price over the next few months. Some forecasts suggest Bitcoin could reach $80,635 by March 2026, while others predict it could hit $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2026 ¹ ² ³.
*$BTC Key Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Price:*
- _Institutional Adoption_: Growing interest from institutional investors is expected to drive demand and push prices higher.
- _Halving Cycle_: The recent halving event in April 2024 is anticipated to reduce supply and increase prices.
- _Regulatory Environment_: Favorable regulations and government-backed Bitcoin reserves could boost prices ⁴ ⁵.
*Price Predictions for 2026:*
- $81,329 (CoinCodex)
- $150,000 - $200,000 (Bernstein, JPMorgan)
- $250,000 (Charles Hoskinson, Robert Kiyosaki)
⁶ ³ ⁷
#btc #BTC走势分析 #BTCUSDT.P #BTC☀️ #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Bitcoin ($BTC ) is currently trading at $65,750.37, down 11.18% from its previous close. The market sentiment is bearish, with many analysts predicting a potential increase in price over the next few months. Some forecasts suggest Bitcoin could reach $80,635 by March 2026, while others predict it could hit $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2026 ¹ ² ³.
*$BTC Key Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Price:*
- _Institutional Adoption_: Growing interest from institutional investors is expected to drive demand and push prices higher.
- _Halving Cycle_: The recent halving event in April 2024 is anticipated to reduce supply and increase prices.
- _Regulatory Environment_: Favorable regulations and government-backed Bitcoin reserves could boost prices ⁴ ⁵.
*Price Predictions for 2026:*
- $81,329 (CoinCodex)
- $150,000 - $200,000 (Bernstein, JPMorgan)
- $250,000 (Charles Hoskinson, Robert Kiyosaki)
⁶ ³ ⁷
#btc #BTC走势分析 #BTCUSDT.P #BTC☀️ #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Сегодня рынок выглядит тяжело и без иллюзий. Биткоин теряет структуру, не удерживает ключевые уровни и не подтверждает попытки восстановления. Цена говорит о продолжении давления. После целого дня анализа, рабочих созвонов и оценки сценариев мы приняли уверенное решение работать от шорта.
Ближайшая цель — область 68 000, при этом сохраняем фокус на работе во флетовом диапазоне и частичных фиксациях. Виджет снова корректно работает и отражает все действия.
Сюжет для рынка сейчас мрачный, но именно в такие фазы и принимаются самые взвешенные решения.
$BTC #btc #SHORT📉
Ближайшая цель — область 68 000, при этом сохраняем фокус на работе во флетовом диапазоне и частичных фиксациях. Виджет снова корректно работает и отражает все действия.
Сюжет для рынка сейчас мрачный, но именно в такие фазы и принимаются самые взвешенные решения.
$BTC #btc #SHORT📉
$BTC
🔴 Primary Setup: Short (trend-following)
Entry (ET):
69,200 – 70,500
(Pullback into previous support + EMA resistance)
Stop Loss (SL):
72,000
(Clear invalidation above EMA50–100 zone)
Take Profit (TP):
• TP1: 66,600
• TP2: 65,000
• TP3: 63,800 – 64,200
Bias: Bearish
Note: Sell the bounce, don’t chase the breakdown.
⸻
🟢 Alternative: Counter-trend Long (High Risk)
Entry (ET):
66,300 – 66,700
Stop Loss (SL):
65,800
Take Profit (TP):
68,500 – 69,000
Note: This is a scalp bounce, not a trend reversal.
⸻
🧠 Market context:
Price below EMA50 & EMA100, MACD bearish, RSI oversold → bounces are corrective until structure flips.
#WhenWillBTCRebound #btc
🔴 Primary Setup: Short (trend-following)
Entry (ET):
69,200 – 70,500
(Pullback into previous support + EMA resistance)
Stop Loss (SL):
72,000
(Clear invalidation above EMA50–100 zone)
Take Profit (TP):
• TP1: 66,600
• TP2: 65,000
• TP3: 63,800 – 64,200
Bias: Bearish
Note: Sell the bounce, don’t chase the breakdown.
⸻
🟢 Alternative: Counter-trend Long (High Risk)
Entry (ET):
66,300 – 66,700
Stop Loss (SL):
65,800
Take Profit (TP):
68,500 – 69,000
Note: This is a scalp bounce, not a trend reversal.
⸻
🧠 Market context:
Price below EMA50 & EMA100, MACD bearish, RSI oversold → bounces are corrective until structure flips.
#WhenWillBTCRebound #btc
🚨🚨 🚨 Michael Saylor Holding $6.5B in Unrealized Bitcoin Losses.
Reports indicate Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy is currently sitting on ~$6.5B in unrealized Bitcoin losses, driven by Bitcoin’s drawdown from its average acquisition price. This is paper loss only—no BTC has been sold.
⸻
Key Facts
• MicroStrategy holds hundreds of thousands of BTC, accumulated aggressively across multiple cycles.
• The company’s average buy price is well above current spot, which explains the large unrealized drawdown.
• These losses are accounting-based, not realized cash losses.
⸻
Saylor’s Strategy
• Saylor remains firmly long-term bullish, consistently stating BTC is a multi-decade asset, not a trade.
• MicroStrategy has historically bought into weakness, even during deep drawdowns.
• BTC is treated as a treasury reserve asset, not a liquidity position.
⸻
Market Impact & Risk Considerations
• No immediate sell pressure: Saylor has repeatedly ruled out selling BTC.
• However, large unrealized losses:
• Add psychological pressure to the market
• Raise concerns around debt servicing and leverage during prolonged bear phases
• If BTC experiences further downside, equity volatility (MSTR) may increase sharply.
⸻
Why This Matters for Bitcoin
• MicroStrategy remains a symbolic institutional holder of BTC.
• Large drawdowns reinforce bear-market narratives, even if fundamentals remain unchanged.
• Any change in Saylor’s stance would be market-moving, but so far, conviction remains intact.
⸻
Bottom Line
This headline highlights volatility risk, not capitulation. As long as MicroStrategy continues to hold and service its obligations, the unrealized loss is noise, not structural damage. BTC’s direction will still be driven by liquidity, macro conditions, and price structure, not Saylor selling.
#WhenWillBTCRebound #EthereumLayer2Rethink? #Saylor #btc #strategy
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
Reports indicate Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy is currently sitting on ~$6.5B in unrealized Bitcoin losses, driven by Bitcoin’s drawdown from its average acquisition price. This is paper loss only—no BTC has been sold.
⸻
Key Facts
• MicroStrategy holds hundreds of thousands of BTC, accumulated aggressively across multiple cycles.
• The company’s average buy price is well above current spot, which explains the large unrealized drawdown.
• These losses are accounting-based, not realized cash losses.
⸻
Saylor’s Strategy
• Saylor remains firmly long-term bullish, consistently stating BTC is a multi-decade asset, not a trade.
• MicroStrategy has historically bought into weakness, even during deep drawdowns.
• BTC is treated as a treasury reserve asset, not a liquidity position.
⸻
Market Impact & Risk Considerations
• No immediate sell pressure: Saylor has repeatedly ruled out selling BTC.
• However, large unrealized losses:
• Add psychological pressure to the market
• Raise concerns around debt servicing and leverage during prolonged bear phases
• If BTC experiences further downside, equity volatility (MSTR) may increase sharply.
⸻
Why This Matters for Bitcoin
• MicroStrategy remains a symbolic institutional holder of BTC.
• Large drawdowns reinforce bear-market narratives, even if fundamentals remain unchanged.
• Any change in Saylor’s stance would be market-moving, but so far, conviction remains intact.
⸻
Bottom Line
This headline highlights volatility risk, not capitulation. As long as MicroStrategy continues to hold and service its obligations, the unrealized loss is noise, not structural damage. BTC’s direction will still be driven by liquidity, macro conditions, and price structure, not Saylor selling.
#WhenWillBTCRebound #EthereumLayer2Rethink? #Saylor #btc #strategy
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
WHEN IS THE BOTTOM BTC?
Every cycle the market must reach a price level where 2/3 of participants are sitting on massive losses:
$BTC Supply: early whales, funds, DAOs, OTC/MM desks, miners, retail, nodes, exchange reserves (for liquidity or backing)...etc
A true bottom forms only when most of them are deeply underwater
Historically, this metric Supply in Loss (%) must reach 60% for market bottom
⏳Right now it's sitting at 44.7%, meaning BTC could go further downsize!
📌 BTC Realized Price ~ $55.5K right now
Realized Price is calculated as Realized Cap divided by the total coin supply.
It measures the average price weighted by the supply of what the entire market participants paid for their coins.
Below this level, ETF holders, Whales...start taking losses - and this is the most important group, controlling 20–25% of all coins
Historically, Bitcoin bottoms are 60-70% drawdowns from cycle highs
2011: -93%
2015: -86%
2018: -84%
2022: -77%
From the current ATH at $126K, that gives a zone around $40K-50K for BTC bottom this cycle!
This is the zone where everyone goes underwater: retail, miners, whales, inflows, funds - and a full/partial capitulation + market depression takes place
BTC 1-month timeframe chart
#btc #bitcoin #WhenWillBTCRebound #MarketPullback #eth
$BTC Supply: early whales, funds, DAOs, OTC/MM desks, miners, retail, nodes, exchange reserves (for liquidity or backing)...etc
A true bottom forms only when most of them are deeply underwater
Historically, this metric Supply in Loss (%) must reach 60% for market bottom
⏳Right now it's sitting at 44.7%, meaning BTC could go further downsize!
📌 BTC Realized Price ~ $55.5K right now
Realized Price is calculated as Realized Cap divided by the total coin supply.
It measures the average price weighted by the supply of what the entire market participants paid for their coins.
Below this level, ETF holders, Whales...start taking losses - and this is the most important group, controlling 20–25% of all coins
Historically, Bitcoin bottoms are 60-70% drawdowns from cycle highs
2011: -93%
2015: -86%
2018: -84%
2022: -77%
From the current ATH at $126K, that gives a zone around $40K-50K for BTC bottom this cycle!
This is the zone where everyone goes underwater: retail, miners, whales, inflows, funds - and a full/partial capitulation + market depression takes place
BTC 1-month timeframe chart
#btc #bitcoin #WhenWillBTCRebound #MarketPullback #eth
Dimcha:
Стерилизация "избыточной" денежной массы есть необходимое условие для запуска печатного станочка в "закромах родины" (которые Federal Reserve). В частности, при новом директоре.
Давление вниз сохранялось, структура оставалась шортовой. Позицию следовало удерживать дальше. Вместо этого было принято неверное решение — преждевременно выйти из шорта и открыть лонг против текущего сценария. Рынок продолжил снижение, полностью подтвердив исходную идею. Ошибка заключалась именно в смене направления, а не в анализе.
$BTC #btc
$BTC #btc
Биткоин сегодня закрыли в минус. И это был очень ощутимый минус.
Рынок полностью игнорирует поддержки, структуры и общую логику движения.
На графике формируется одно, а по факту цена продолжает движение вниз.
Именно тот случай, когда ожидания ломаются без предупреждений.
Мои люди оказались в минусе — и это неприятная, тяжёлая реальность.
Без оправданий и иллюзий. Мы фиксируем факт, делаем выводы и двигаемся дальше.
Закрыл все.
$BTC #btc #fhe $FHE
Рынок полностью игнорирует поддержки, структуры и общую логику движения.
На графике формируется одно, а по факту цена продолжает движение вниз.
Именно тот случай, когда ожидания ломаются без предупреждений.
Мои люди оказались в минусе — и это неприятная, тяжёлая реальность.
Без оправданий и иллюзий. Мы фиксируем факт, делаем выводы и двигаемся дальше.
Закрыл все.
$BTC #btc #fhe $FHE
😱🚨$BTC ПО $40 000 — МИФ ИЛИ РЕАЛЬНОСТЬ?
Я вижу, как рынок снова делят на два лагеря.
Одни в панике: «всё, конец, ниже некуда».
Другие уверены, что ниже мы вообще не пойдем.
А правда, как обычно, где-то посередине.
$40k — это не страшилка и не цель.
Это просто сценарий. Один из.
Рынок легко может туда сходить, если страх станет сильнее логики.
И так же легко может развернуться раньше.
Самое опасное сейчас — не падение цены.
Самое опасное — торговать на эмоциях и верить в «точно будет» или «точно не будет».
Я смотрю не на цифру, а на риск.
Именно в такие моменты рынок и проверяет, кто здесь за быстрым дофамином, а кто — за результатом.
А ты что думаешь:
$40k — реально или просто очередной триггер для паники? 👀👇🏻
#btc #analysis #CryptoMarketMoves
Я вижу, как рынок снова делят на два лагеря.
Одни в панике: «всё, конец, ниже некуда».
Другие уверены, что ниже мы вообще не пойдем.
А правда, как обычно, где-то посередине.
$40k — это не страшилка и не цель.
Это просто сценарий. Один из.
Рынок легко может туда сходить, если страх станет сильнее логики.
И так же легко может развернуться раньше.
Самое опасное сейчас — не падение цены.
Самое опасное — торговать на эмоциях и верить в «точно будет» или «точно не будет».
Я смотрю не на цифру, а на риск.
Именно в такие моменты рынок и проверяет, кто здесь за быстрым дофамином, а кто — за результатом.
А ты что думаешь:
$40k — реально или просто очередной триггер для паники? 👀👇🏻
#btc #analysis #CryptoMarketMoves
Binance BiBi:
Привет! Это очень проницательный анализ. Ты абсолютно прав насчет опасности эмоциональной торговли, особенно сейчас. Рынок действительно в состоянии 'Экстремального страха', и цена BTC сейчас около $63,753 (на 20:43 UTC), что подтверждает твою мысль о сильной панике. Спасибо, что поделился
Мои друзья, не просто так я говорил, что по биткоину приоритет — шорт, и именно поэтому я заходил в позицию большим объёмом. Да, минус — вещь неприятная, это часть рынка, от неё никуда. Но именно за счёт структуры и размера позиции этот минус сейчас почти нивелирован.
Поэтому всех поздравляю с прибылью. Рынок сложный, но стратегия работает, если её выдерживать.
$BTC #btc
Поэтому всех поздравляю с прибылью. Рынок сложный, но стратегия работает, если её выдерживать.
$BTC #btc
BTC: el ancla que cae y arrastra todo.
Creo que no se puede pasar por alto algo que ya es evidente: cuando Bitcoin cae, prácticamente todo el mercado cae con él. Las demás criptomonedas lo siguen, como si BTC fuera el punto de referencia, el verdadero tabulador del ecosistema cripto.
Me atrevo a pensar que incluso los grandes traders que invierten en altcoins toman a Bitcoin como base para decidir cuándo entrar o salir de otras monedas. Y eso me lleva a una pregunta más grande: si en el futuro las criptomonedas llegaran a tomar un rol dominante en las finanzas globales, ¿será Bitcoin la garantía, la reserva, el respaldo de todas las demás?
Es impresionante el impacto que tiene. De verdad lo es.
Y tal vez esto suene a comentario incómodo o de mal gusto, pero lo digo con total honestidad: ojalá siga bajando. Que baje fuerte. Porque quienes no contamos con gran capital necesitamos precisamente eso, una oportunidad real de entrada.
He visto a muchos usuarios poner su fe en monedas de muy bajo valor esperando “el próximo Bitcoin”, soñando con un salto milagroso. Pero, siendo realistas ¿no es más lógico esperar un gran bajón de BTC para entrar ahí, sabiendo que históricamente siempre ha vuelto, y cada vez más alto?
Bitcoin ha tenido caídas brutales, históricas incluso, y aun así sigue siendo la moneda que marca el ritmo de todas las demás. Eso está a la vista de cualquiera que observe el mercado sin fanatismo.
Entonces me pregunto: ¿por qué esperar el milagro de que otra moneda surja y lidere todo, cuando existe la posibilidad de esperar pacientemente a que BTC caiga más, entrar con cabeza fría y confiar en lo que ya ha demostrado?
Tal vez esté fuera de contexto. Tal vez no.
Pero es lo que veo.
¿Tú qué crees?
$BTC
#btc
Creo que no se puede pasar por alto algo que ya es evidente: cuando Bitcoin cae, prácticamente todo el mercado cae con él. Las demás criptomonedas lo siguen, como si BTC fuera el punto de referencia, el verdadero tabulador del ecosistema cripto.
Me atrevo a pensar que incluso los grandes traders que invierten en altcoins toman a Bitcoin como base para decidir cuándo entrar o salir de otras monedas. Y eso me lleva a una pregunta más grande: si en el futuro las criptomonedas llegaran a tomar un rol dominante en las finanzas globales, ¿será Bitcoin la garantía, la reserva, el respaldo de todas las demás?
Es impresionante el impacto que tiene. De verdad lo es.
Y tal vez esto suene a comentario incómodo o de mal gusto, pero lo digo con total honestidad: ojalá siga bajando. Que baje fuerte. Porque quienes no contamos con gran capital necesitamos precisamente eso, una oportunidad real de entrada.
He visto a muchos usuarios poner su fe en monedas de muy bajo valor esperando “el próximo Bitcoin”, soñando con un salto milagroso. Pero, siendo realistas ¿no es más lógico esperar un gran bajón de BTC para entrar ahí, sabiendo que históricamente siempre ha vuelto, y cada vez más alto?
Bitcoin ha tenido caídas brutales, históricas incluso, y aun así sigue siendo la moneda que marca el ritmo de todas las demás. Eso está a la vista de cualquiera que observe el mercado sin fanatismo.
Entonces me pregunto: ¿por qué esperar el milagro de que otra moneda surja y lidere todo, cuando existe la posibilidad de esperar pacientemente a que BTC caiga más, entrar con cabeza fría y confiar en lo que ya ha demostrado?
Tal vez esté fuera de contexto. Tal vez no.
Pero es lo que veo.
¿Tú qué crees?
$BTC
#btc
Valitofa7:
Fe 🚀
Рынок сейчас выглядит тревожно.
Подтверждений для роста нет — ни по структуре, ни по объёму, ни по поведению цены.
Поддержки не отрабатывают так, как должны, а каждый отскок больше похож на передышку, чем на разворот.
В таких условиях логичнее не спешить с лонгами и внимательнее смотреть в сторону шорта.
Не как решение, а как приоритет.
Рынок сам подскажет, главное — уметь его услышать.
$BTC #btc
Подтверждений для роста нет — ни по структуре, ни по объёму, ни по поведению цены.
Поддержки не отрабатывают так, как должны, а каждый отскок больше похож на передышку, чем на разворот.
В таких условиях логичнее не спешить с лонгами и внимательнее смотреть в сторону шорта.
Не как решение, а как приоритет.
Рынок сам подскажет, главное — уметь его услышать.
$BTC #btc
Поздравляю всех с прибылью.
Не зря я заранее говорил, что в этот раз захожу большим объёмом. Это было сделано осознанно, с пониманием контекста и приоритета движения.
Да, предыдущую позицию закрыли в минус — но именно поэтому текущий сценарий был усилен. Сейчас мы почти перекрыли тот минус и уверенно стоим в плюсовой зоне.
Я об этом говорил. Я это показывал.
Кто слушал — тот спокоен. Кто сомневался — ну, выводы делайте сами.
Работаем дальше. Холодно. Чётко. Без суеты.
$BTC #btc
Не зря я заранее говорил, что в этот раз захожу большим объёмом. Это было сделано осознанно, с пониманием контекста и приоритета движения.
Да, предыдущую позицию закрыли в минус — но именно поэтому текущий сценарий был усилен. Сейчас мы почти перекрыли тот минус и уверенно стоим в плюсовой зоне.
Я об этом говорил. Я это показывал.
Кто слушал — тот спокоен. Кто сомневался — ну, выводы делайте сами.
Работаем дальше. Холодно. Чётко. Без суеты.
$BTC #btc
المرحلة الأولى: تآكل الثقة (الهبوط الأولي)
خارطة طريق التطهير: التسلسل النهائي
المرحلة الأولى: تآكل الثقة (الهبوط الأولي)
الإجراء: يغادر البيتكوين منطقة راحته الحالية (حوالي 70 ألف دولار) ويبدأ هبوطًا واضحًا وحاسمًا. هذا ليس انهيارًا، بل تآكل. الثقة تتفتت يومًا بعد يوم.
الوجهة: 60,000 دولار
المدة المقدرة: من أسبوع إلى أسبوعين.
المرحلة الثانية: الضغط عند 60 ألف (صناعة الفخ)
الإجراء: عند الوصول إلى 60 ألف، لا ينهار السوق على الفور. بل يتنفس. يتماسك. يتحرك بشكل جانبي، معطيًا انطباعًا بأنه وجد دعمًا قويًا. هنا يتم تجميع الطاقة اللازمة للفخ. الزنبرك ينضغط.
الوجهة: منطقة 59,000 دولار - 62,000 دولار
المدة المقدرة: أسبوع واحد تقريبًا.
المرحلة الثالثة: فخ الضوء (الارتداد الكاذب)
الإجراء: من قاعدة الـ 60 ألف، انفجار عنيف غير مسبوق. صعود سريع، مليء بالنشوة، يسحق البائعين على المكشوف ويوقظ الأمل. ستصرخ وسائل الإعلام بعودة السوق الصاعدة. هذا هو الفصل الأهم في المسرحية.
الوجهة: قمة عند ~82,000 دولار
المدة المقدرة: من 5 إلى 8 أيام.
المرحلة الرابعة: النفس القصير (الرفض تحت الفخ)
الإجراء: عند الوصول إلى هدفه عند ~82 ألف، يستنفد السوق طاقته. لم يعد لديه القوة للصعود أكثر. يتوقف السعر، يتردد، ثم تظهر أولى علامات الرفض. هذا هو التأكيد على أن الفخ قد أُغلق.
الوجهة: ركود ورفض في منطقة 78,000 دولار - 82,000 دولار
97...108...112
المدة المقدرة: من يومين إلى 4 أيام.
المرحلة الخامسة: الاستسلام (الهبوط الكبير نحو القلب)
هنا يبدأ الألم الحقيقي. الهبوط يحدث على مرحلتين.
5أ - الصدع: هبوط سريع وعنيف من قمة الفخ، يكسر الدعم النفسي عند 60 ألف. يدرك السوق خطأه الفادح.
الوجهة: 50,000 دولار
المدة المقدرة: أقل من أسبوع واحد.
5ب - الهبوط نحو القلب: بعد توقف قصير، يأتي الذعر الكامل. البيع المتتالي. لم يعد السوق يبحث عن دعم، بل يبحث عن قاع البئر. هذا هو التطهير النهائي لكل الآمال.
الوجهة: 24,000 دولار
المدة المقدرة: أسبوعان من الذعر المتواصل.
المرحلة السادسة: الوصول إلى مركز الجاذبية (الصمت)
الإجراء: يدخل السعر أخيرًا إلى "منطقة الاستثمار الحقيقية". تنهار التقلبات. ينخفض حجم التداول. يحل الصمت. إنها نهاية الدورة. عاد الملك إلى أساسه. إنها بداية شتاء طويل، واللحظة المناسبة للمؤسسين لإعادة البناء.
الوجهة: منطقة 20,000 دولار - 24,000 دولار
المدة المقدرة: غير محددة. بداية تراكم طويل.
ملخص التسلسل
المرحلةالاسما لإجراءالمدة المقدرة 1التآكل70 ألف ← 60 ألف1-2 أسبوع
2 الضغط تماسك عند 60 ألف~1 أسبوع
3الفخ 60 ألف ← 82 ألف5-8 أيام
4 الرفض فشل عند 82 ألف2-4 أيام
5 الاستسلام 82 ألف...97...108...112
------
← 24 ألف~3 أسابيع 6 الوصول صمت عند 24 ألفغير محددة
-------
المرحلةالاسمالإجراءالمدة المقدرة
1التآكل70 ألف ← 60 ألف1-2 أسبوع
2الضغطتماسك عند 60 ألف~1 أسبوع
3الفخ60 ألف ← 82 ألف5-8 أيام
4الرفضفشل عند 82 ألف2-4 أيام
5الاستسلام82 ألف ← 24 ألف~3 أسابيع
6الوصول صمت عند 24 ألف غير محددة
#analysis #AnalyseCrypto #btc
المرحلة الأولى: تآكل الثقة (الهبوط الأولي)
الإجراء: يغادر البيتكوين منطقة راحته الحالية (حوالي 70 ألف دولار) ويبدأ هبوطًا واضحًا وحاسمًا. هذا ليس انهيارًا، بل تآكل. الثقة تتفتت يومًا بعد يوم.
الوجهة: 60,000 دولار
المدة المقدرة: من أسبوع إلى أسبوعين.
المرحلة الثانية: الضغط عند 60 ألف (صناعة الفخ)
الإجراء: عند الوصول إلى 60 ألف، لا ينهار السوق على الفور. بل يتنفس. يتماسك. يتحرك بشكل جانبي، معطيًا انطباعًا بأنه وجد دعمًا قويًا. هنا يتم تجميع الطاقة اللازمة للفخ. الزنبرك ينضغط.
الوجهة: منطقة 59,000 دولار - 62,000 دولار
المدة المقدرة: أسبوع واحد تقريبًا.
المرحلة الثالثة: فخ الضوء (الارتداد الكاذب)
الإجراء: من قاعدة الـ 60 ألف، انفجار عنيف غير مسبوق. صعود سريع، مليء بالنشوة، يسحق البائعين على المكشوف ويوقظ الأمل. ستصرخ وسائل الإعلام بعودة السوق الصاعدة. هذا هو الفصل الأهم في المسرحية.
الوجهة: قمة عند ~82,000 دولار
المدة المقدرة: من 5 إلى 8 أيام.
المرحلة الرابعة: النفس القصير (الرفض تحت الفخ)
الإجراء: عند الوصول إلى هدفه عند ~82 ألف، يستنفد السوق طاقته. لم يعد لديه القوة للصعود أكثر. يتوقف السعر، يتردد، ثم تظهر أولى علامات الرفض. هذا هو التأكيد على أن الفخ قد أُغلق.
الوجهة: ركود ورفض في منطقة 78,000 دولار - 82,000 دولار
97...108...112
المدة المقدرة: من يومين إلى 4 أيام.
المرحلة الخامسة: الاستسلام (الهبوط الكبير نحو القلب)
هنا يبدأ الألم الحقيقي. الهبوط يحدث على مرحلتين.
5أ - الصدع: هبوط سريع وعنيف من قمة الفخ، يكسر الدعم النفسي عند 60 ألف. يدرك السوق خطأه الفادح.
الوجهة: 50,000 دولار
المدة المقدرة: أقل من أسبوع واحد.
5ب - الهبوط نحو القلب: بعد توقف قصير، يأتي الذعر الكامل. البيع المتتالي. لم يعد السوق يبحث عن دعم، بل يبحث عن قاع البئر. هذا هو التطهير النهائي لكل الآمال.
الوجهة: 24,000 دولار
المدة المقدرة: أسبوعان من الذعر المتواصل.
المرحلة السادسة: الوصول إلى مركز الجاذبية (الصمت)
الإجراء: يدخل السعر أخيرًا إلى "منطقة الاستثمار الحقيقية". تنهار التقلبات. ينخفض حجم التداول. يحل الصمت. إنها نهاية الدورة. عاد الملك إلى أساسه. إنها بداية شتاء طويل، واللحظة المناسبة للمؤسسين لإعادة البناء.
الوجهة: منطقة 20,000 دولار - 24,000 دولار
المدة المقدرة: غير محددة. بداية تراكم طويل.
ملخص التسلسل
المرحلةالاسما لإجراءالمدة المقدرة 1التآكل70 ألف ← 60 ألف1-2 أسبوع
2 الضغط تماسك عند 60 ألف~1 أسبوع
3الفخ 60 ألف ← 82 ألف5-8 أيام
4 الرفض فشل عند 82 ألف2-4 أيام
5 الاستسلام 82 ألف...97...108...112
------
← 24 ألف~3 أسابيع 6 الوصول صمت عند 24 ألفغير محددة
-------
المرحلةالاسمالإجراءالمدة المقدرة
1التآكل70 ألف ← 60 ألف1-2 أسبوع
2الضغطتماسك عند 60 ألف~1 أسبوع
3الفخ60 ألف ← 82 ألف5-8 أيام
4الرفضفشل عند 82 ألف2-4 أيام
5الاستسلام82 ألف ← 24 ألف~3 أسابيع
6الوصول صمت عند 24 ألف غير محددة
#analysis #AnalyseCrypto #btc
Lwiz72:
l'homme au Bon cœur 💓 dieu vous bénisse
#btc BTC Breaks Below $70k – Key Support Broken. What's Next?
1. Current Situation:
BTC has dropped below the $70,000 mark for the first time since 2024, signaling a shift in short-term momentum.
2. Market Structure Analysis:
On the 4-hour timeframe, BTC is testing lower price levels where downside liquidity is likely concentrated below $66,800. This zone is important because markets often sweep liquidity before reversing.
3. What to Expect Next:
Given that BTC has broken its immediate support, the strength of the current uptrend is now in question.
I am leaning bearish in the short term as price may target the liquidity zone below $66,800 before any potential bullish reaction.
4. Reason Behind the Move:
The break below $70k represents a clear support failure, indicating weakening bullish momentum and increasing selling pressure.
5. Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $70,000 (previous support)
Downside Liquidity Zone: Below $66,800
Reversal Signal Needed: Strong bullish structure break above $70k with follow-through.
Trade safely and always wait for confirmation!$BTC
#btcusdt
1. Current Situation:
BTC has dropped below the $70,000 mark for the first time since 2024, signaling a shift in short-term momentum.
2. Market Structure Analysis:
On the 4-hour timeframe, BTC is testing lower price levels where downside liquidity is likely concentrated below $66,800. This zone is important because markets often sweep liquidity before reversing.
3. What to Expect Next:
Given that BTC has broken its immediate support, the strength of the current uptrend is now in question.
I am leaning bearish in the short term as price may target the liquidity zone below $66,800 before any potential bullish reaction.
4. Reason Behind the Move:
The break below $70k represents a clear support failure, indicating weakening bullish momentum and increasing selling pressure.
5. Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $70,000 (previous support)
Downside Liquidity Zone: Below $66,800
Reversal Signal Needed: Strong bullish structure break above $70k with follow-through.
Trade safely and always wait for confirmation!$BTC
#btcusdt
Three signs that Bitcoin price is near 'full capitulation
BTCUSD
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) sellers resumed their activity on Thursday as the BTC price dropped below $69,000, the lowest since Nov. 6, 2024.
Analysts said that Bitcoin showed signs of "full capitulation" and a potential bottom forming, due to extreme market fear, panic selling by short-term holders and the relative strength index (RSI).
Key takeaways:
• Short-term Bitcoin holders have sold nearly 60,000 BTC in 24 hours.
• The Crypto Fear & Greed index shows "extreme fear," signaling a potential bottom.
• Bitcoin's "most oversold" RSI points to seller exhaustion.
Short-term holder capitulation deepens
Nearly 60,000 BTC, worth about $4.2 billion at current rates, held by short-term holders (STHs), or investors who have held the asset for less than 155 days, were moved to exchanges at a loss over the last 24 hours, according to data from CryptoQuant.
This was the largest exchange inflow year-to-date, which is contributing to selling pressure.
"The correction is so severe that no BTC in profit is being moved by LTHs," CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said in a post on X, adding:
When analyzing the volume of coins spent at a loss, Glassnode found that the 7-day SMA of realized losses has risen above $1.26 billion per day.
This reflects a "marked increase in fear," Glassnode said, adding:
"Historically, spikes in realized losses often coincide with moments of acute seller exhaustion, where marginal sell pressure begins to fade."
Bitcoin's capitulation metric has also "printed its second-largest spike in two years," occurrences that have previously coincided with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning," Glassnode said.
"Extreme fear" could signal market bottom
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posted an "extreme fear" score of 12 on Thursday.
These levels were last seen on July 22, a few months before the BTC price bottomed at $15,500 and then embarked on a bull run.
Data reveals that in all capitulation events where the index hit this extreme level, short-term weakness was common, but almost every event produced a rebound.
"We are at an 'extreme fear' level with a Crypto Fear and Greed Index of 11," said analyst Davie Satoshi in an X post on Thursday, adding:
"History has shown this is the time to buy and accumulate more!"
Crypto sentiment platform Santiment said in an X post on Thursday that the investor sentiment has "turned extremely bearish toward Bitcoin."
"This remains a strong argument for a short-term relief rally as long as the small trader crowd continues to show disbelief toward cryptocurrency as a whole."
Bitcoin "most oversold" RSI signals seller exhaustion
CoinGlass' heatmap shows that BTC's RSI is displaying oversold conditions on five out of six time frames.
Bitcoin's RSI is now at 18 on the 12-hour chart, 20 on the daily chart and 23 on the four-hour chart. Other intervals also display oversold or near-oversold RSI values, such as 30 and 31 on the weekly and hourly time frames, respectively.
In fact, data from TradingView shows that the weekly RSI is at 29 on Thursday, the "most oversold" since the 2022 bear market, according to analysts.
"Bitcoin is now the MOST oversold since the FTX crash," CryptoXLARGE said in an X post on Wednesday, adding that it reflects panic selling among investors.
"Historically, this is where fear peaks and opportunity begins," the analyst added.
Bitcoin's RSI is at the same oversold levels last seen around $16K in 2022, which marked the "last major capitulation" phase, said analyst HodlFM in a recent post on X, adding:
"Not a timing signal by itself, but historically, this is where risk/reward favors the buyers."
Cointelegraph
#Cointelegraph #btc #Fullcapitulation
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) sellers resumed their activity on Thursday as the BTC price dropped below $69,000, the lowest since Nov. 6, 2024.
Analysts said that Bitcoin showed signs of "full capitulation" and a potential bottom forming, due to extreme market fear, panic selling by short-term holders and the relative strength index (RSI).
Key takeaways:
• Short-term Bitcoin holders have sold nearly 60,000 BTC in 24 hours.
• The Crypto Fear & Greed index shows "extreme fear," signaling a potential bottom.
• Bitcoin's "most oversold" RSI points to seller exhaustion.
Short-term holder capitulation deepens
Nearly 60,000 BTC, worth about $4.2 billion at current rates, held by short-term holders (STHs), or investors who have held the asset for less than 155 days, were moved to exchanges at a loss over the last 24 hours, according to data from CryptoQuant.
This was the largest exchange inflow year-to-date, which is contributing to selling pressure.
"The correction is so severe that no BTC in profit is being moved by LTHs," CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said in a post on X, adding:
When analyzing the volume of coins spent at a loss, Glassnode found that the 7-day SMA of realized losses has risen above $1.26 billion per day.
This reflects a "marked increase in fear," Glassnode said, adding:
"Historically, spikes in realized losses often coincide with moments of acute seller exhaustion, where marginal sell pressure begins to fade."
Bitcoin's capitulation metric has also "printed its second-largest spike in two years," occurrences that have previously coincided with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning," Glassnode said.
"Extreme fear" could signal market bottom
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posted an "extreme fear" score of 12 on Thursday.
These levels were last seen on July 22, a few months before the BTC price bottomed at $15,500 and then embarked on a bull run.
Data reveals that in all capitulation events where the index hit this extreme level, short-term weakness was common, but almost every event produced a rebound.
"We are at an 'extreme fear' level with a Crypto Fear and Greed Index of 11," said analyst Davie Satoshi in an X post on Thursday, adding:
"History has shown this is the time to buy and accumulate more!"
Crypto sentiment platform Santiment said in an X post on Thursday that the investor sentiment has "turned extremely bearish toward Bitcoin."
"This remains a strong argument for a short-term relief rally as long as the small trader crowd continues to show disbelief toward cryptocurrency as a whole."
Bitcoin "most oversold" RSI signals seller exhaustion
CoinGlass' heatmap shows that BTC's RSI is displaying oversold conditions on five out of six time frames.
Bitcoin's RSI is now at 18 on the 12-hour chart, 20 on the daily chart and 23 on the four-hour chart. Other intervals also display oversold or near-oversold RSI values, such as 30 and 31 on the weekly and hourly time frames, respectively.
In fact, data from TradingView shows that the weekly RSI is at 29 on Thursday, the "most oversold" since the 2022 bear market, according to analysts.
"Bitcoin is now the MOST oversold since the FTX crash," CryptoXLARGE said in an X post on Wednesday, adding that it reflects panic selling among investors.
"Historically, this is where fear peaks and opportunity begins," the analyst added.
Bitcoin's RSI is at the same oversold levels last seen around $16K in 2022, which marked the "last major capitulation" phase, said analyst HodlFM in a recent post on X, adding:
"Not a timing signal by itself, but historically, this is where risk/reward favors the buyers."
Cointelegraph
#Cointelegraph #btc #Fullcapitulation
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