I think this is the time many of you need to pause for a moment and look at the market more calmly to understand what phase we are in the cycle.
About two weeks ago, when BTC was still around 95k, I made a fairly clear point: Bitcoin is no longer in a strong uptrend, but is moving sideways in a weak state, and there is a high likelihood of a breakdown below 80k. At that time, many people still thought 'sideways to go up next'. But now you all see, BTC has fallen below 80k, and more importantly, it just did something extremely noteworthy that most of the market is overlooking.
$BTC has closed below the MA100 weekly.
In the past, the MA100 weekly has almost been a clear boundary between a bull market and a bear market. In October 2023, when BTC broke up and maintained the MA100 weekly, that was a signal confirming the start of a bull market. And now, almost 2 years later, right on the cycle timing, BTC has lost that very MA line again.
This is not happening 'gently'. This breakdown is very decisive, accompanied by the bearish flag pattern that I have mentioned for several weeks now being confirmed. To be clear: this is no longer a correction in an uptrend, but a confirmation of a transition to a down phase.
Another layer of confirmation is the death cross forming on the weekly timeframe. Anyone who went through the 2021–2022 period will see many similarities in the current pattern: losing important MAs, weak sideways movement, then strong breakdowns. These signals are not for short-term trading but to position within the larger market context.
Regarding targets, previously when BTC was in the 115–125k range, I shared the view that the cycle bottom is likely in the 50–60k range. Looking back, that view is entirely reasonable. However, after updating the data and models, I must adjust my expectations lower. The new bottom range I am monitoring is around 54k–44k. It sounds quite 'shocking' in the current sentiment context, but the market often does not care about the emotions of the majority.
One more detail that caught my attention is that BTC has currently fallen below the average cost price of MicroStrategy, around 76k. This could create additional psychological pressure in the near future. When a 'never sell' symbol begins to fall into an unfavorable price range, the market will automatically question leverage, collateral, and the ability to endure if negative trends persist. I'm not saying this is an immediate risk, but clearly, it doesn't help improve sentiment.
Not to mention, in the near future, the market may also face more FUD from peripheral narratives. Personally, I don't think such stories have a substantial impact on Bitcoin, but the mass market often reacts very emotionally, and this can amplify selling pressure in the short term.
In summary, my current view is quite clear: BTC is in a bear market, not in the sense of 'crashing straight down', but rather a structured down phase, with pauses, then continuing on. What is happening now is reaffirming the view from the 115–125k range that the cycle peak has formed.
For you all, this is not the time to try to catch the bottom or prove oneself right. This is the time to understand that the cycle has changed phases, and strategies need to change accordingly. Anyone who still thinks 'just be patient and the market will return to a bull soon' is likely to be worn down both in capital and mentality.