🚨 Power transition countdown! Powell's 'farewell performance' hides three bombs, next week's data may become the fuse!
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Powell's speech is likely his 'rehearsal for power transition' in the position of Federal Reserve Chairman. On the surface calm, but in reality, undercurrents are surging—three acts have already begun:
1️⃣ Act One: Liquidity carnival, hitting the pause button
Interest rates unchanged, 'policy is in a good position' = intermission time is over. This is not tightening, but a rhythm switch. #下任美联储主席会是谁？
2️⃣ Act Two: Preemptively 'shifting blame' for 'easing restart'
He attributes the rebound in inflation to tariffs and other external factors, but in reality, it's paving the way: once these factors fade, the easing narrative can seamlessly restart.
3️⃣ Act Three: The final declaration to defend central bank independence
Against the backdrop of Trump’s relentless pressure (subpoena investigation of Powell, planting his own people to vote against), he emphasizes that 'the Federal Reserve should stay away from politics', drawing a red line for the future.
🔮 What to watch next?
Next week will be data-heavy, any slight movement could ignite the market:
· Monday: US manufacturing PMI, Bank of Japan meeting minutes
· Tuesday: US job openings, Federal Reserve officials' speeches
· Wednesday: US crude oil inventories, Eurozone CPI
· Thursday: US initial jobless claims
· Friday: US non-farm payroll data (main event)
When power battles on the surface, data will become the most real fuse beneath the stage. Are your positions ready to welcome the volatility?
