CryptoQuant CEO Gi-young stated on February 1 that the realized market capitalization of Bitcoin, which had been steadily increasing for about two and a half years, has recently flattened out.
He shared a PnL index signal (365-day moving average) that synthesizes the MVRV ratio, NUPL, and short-term and long-term holder SOPR into a single valuation metric.
This indicator peaked around mid-2025 and has been on a downward trend, currently moving towards a neutral zone.
As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at approximately $78,500, which is about 40% lower than its all-time high of $126,000 recorded in October 2025.
The on-chain data shows that
Realized market capitalization is an indicator that sums up the prices at which each coin last moved, tracking the total capital actually invested in Bitcoin. An increase in this figure indicates that new funds are flowing into the market. Conversely, if the realized market capitalization remains flat while the total market capitalization declines, it suggests that new buying funds are not able to absorb the selling pressure.
The representative mentioned that long-term holders have begun to realize profits since the beginning of 2024. According to Glassnode data, long-term holders have realized a total profit of 3.27 million BTC since early 2024, surpassing the total for the entire 2021 cycle. The inflow of funds into spot ETFs and the aggressive buying by Strategy have significantly offset these sell volumes. However, this inflow has mostly stopped now.
CryptoQuant's own report confirms that Bitcoin holders have entered a net realized loss phase for the first time since October 2023. Since December 23, investors have realized a total loss of about 69,000 BTC. On an annual basis, net realized profits have decreased from 4.4 million BTC in October to about 2.5 million BTC, similar to levels seen in March 2022.
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The reason the representative expects 'adjustment' rather than a crash
The representative claimed that the possibility of a drop exceeding 70%, as seen in past cycles, is low until Strategy sells the 712,647 BTC it holds. The average purchase price of the company's Bitcoin is around $76,037 per BTC, and due to recent price declines, the holdings have entered a valuation loss phase. CoinDesk reported that none of the holdings are pledged as collateral, and that there is no forced selling pressure at the current price level as the convertible bond maturity will not occur before Q3 2027.
The representative predicts that this downturn is more likely to be resolved through long-term sideways movement rather than a rapid rebound. In the past, after the PnL index turned down from similar peaks, a pattern of extended sideways trading continued before a clear direction emerged.
However, not all analysts agree with this view. Sean Dawson, the head of research at the on-chain options platform Derive, believes that a decrease in net realized profits may not necessarily indicate a bearish signal. He explained that this phenomenon could be a result of more sophisticated institutional and professional investors entering the market, leading to reduced volatility, and suggested that it may be viewed as part of a structural change rather than a definitive bearish indicator.
Next article: Bitcoin Drops To $77,000 As Capital Inflows Stall And Strategy Goes Underwater
