【Disclosure of Related Interests】 I do not hold $VANRY and have no connection with the @vanar team.
Data does not lie: What step is Vanar's 'real adoption' at based on on-chain activities?
Everyone is talking about ecological cooperation and grand visions, but is there actually anyone using the chain? Data is the mirror. Today, we won't talk about the future, but let's dig into the real traces of what has happened on the Vanar chain.
Setting aside the noisy press releases, for an enterprise-oriented L1, the core observation point of its early value is not the coin price, but the activity level of on-chain non-transfer interactions. This represents the actual adoption of users and DApps.
Data anchoring analysis:
Core indicator tracking: Based on public block explorers, observe the trend of its average daily transaction number (especially contract calls). After its recent mainnet upgrade, did the changes in the transaction fee structure stimulate more interactions?
Ecological contract activity: Focus on the growth of independent interaction address numbers for its officially incubated core ecological applications (such as the Vanguard Gallery and VENLY Market). This is a leading indicator for judging whether its 'entertainment entry' narrative has taken root.
Impact of airdrop expectations: The potential airdrop that is hotly discussed in the community has indeed led to an increase in the number of addresses. But it needs to be distinguished: is it the short-term brushing from the witch farm, or the real users leaving traces for experiencing the ecosystem? This can be roughly judged through the diversity of address behaviors and their longevity.
Risk exposure assessment:
Ecological cold start risk: Currently, there are still relatively few native leading applications on the chain. If partners cannot be quickly converted into active on-chain products, there is a risk of 'loud thunder, little rain'.
Liquidity risk: The main trading depth of $VANRY is concentrated in a few CEX, and on-chain DEX liquidity is limited. This is a potential shortcoming for a public chain that emphasizes ecological applications in terms of user experience.
Key observation nodes: In the next 1-2 quarters, whether a native blockbuster application with over a thousand daily active users (even if it's a simple game or fan interaction) can emerge will be key to validating the feasibility of its model.
What do you think about the early adoption indicators of public chains? Do you value the number of partners more, or the actual on-chain activity? Let's discuss in the comments.
