In the past few days, many people have been saying that the crypto market is in such a bad place, but it's actually just a mean reversion.

This recent decline resembles a cleaning of the bubbles from the last cycle. The core reason people feel that crypto is sidelined now is that too many are only focused on short-term prices.

Of course, it must be acknowledged that crypto is indeed not performing well: it can't outperform the U.S. stock market, and it certainly can't outrun gold and silver.

But fundamentally, it's all about cycles. Gold and silver also went through years of oscillation before this round of price increases; the A-shares had been stagnant for nearly 10 years before they could stand above 4000 points. Since its inception, BTC has been operating on a 4-year cycle. Liquidity is merely rotating between different markets, and this current stage does not belong to crypto; we can only wait.

The good side is that the macro environment is actually gradually improving: regulatory certainty is increasing.

The leading effect of the SEC.

This year, there might be two interest rate cuts.

Trump's backup plan for the midterm elections.

All of these could potentially become factors that stimulate crypto again this year.

So what's more important now is to lower expectations for crypto. When the market presents new narratives, new consensus, and new liquidity injections, crypto will naturally attract global attention again.