⚙️ Analysis completed using a special prompt from ChatGPT
(structure → indicators → capital flows → liquidations → risk)
Entering facts
Price: ~2689
Market condition:
• RSI 4H: 27.6 — oversold, no reversal
• MACD 4H: deep in the negative — bearish momentum alive
• Price below all EMAs (7–200) — downtrend
• Price under Ichimoku cloud (2785–2839) — upper zone for sales
• SAR above the price — pressure remains
• Volumes are red — buying is weak
Flows:
• Spot: short-term picking up
• Futures: strong outflow → cutting leverage
Liquidity:
• Magnet above: 2800–2900
• Magnet below: 2600–2660
Market emotions: fear.
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Key levels
Resistances
• 2728 — EMA7
• 2785–2839 — Ichimoku + rebound failure zone
• 2893 — key level, without it there is no reversal
Supports
• 2688 — current, weak
• 2600–2559 — liquidity accumulation zone
• 2402 / 2315 — when lowering develops
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Basic logic
Downtrend is not broken.
RSI grants the right to rebound, but does not allow believing in growth.
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SCENARIO 1 — LONG (counter-trend, short)
Idea: take the technical rebound, without arguing with the trend.
Entry conditions:
• Price holds above 2688
• No impulse breakout down
Entry:
• Zone 2660–2690
Stop:
• 2590 (strictly, without “I'll wait”)
Take:
• TP1: 2790 — fixing part
• TP2: 2830
• TP3 (only if the market allows): 2893
Management:
• After TP1 → stop at breakeven
• Without accumulations
• This is not a medium-term, this is a rebound
Shoulder:
• x1–x2, not higher
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SCENARIO 2 — SHORT (by trend, upon confirmation)
Idea: work towards the main pressure.
Option A — from resistance
• Bounce from 2785–2839
Stop:
• 2850
Take:
• 2559 → 2402 → 2315
Option B — on breakout
• Consolidate below 2590
Stop:
• 2660
Take:
• 2402 → 2315
Shoulder:
• x2–x3, maximum
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What cancels the scenarios
Long canceled:
• Break and hold below 2590
Short canceled:
• Consolidate above 2893
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Main risk
Oversold creates the illusion of a bottom.
The market can:
1. first, complete liquidity under 2600,
2. then sharply push up to 2800–2900,
3. and return down again.
Without structure — this is a trap.
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Result
• Long — only as a technical rebound, short and disciplined
• Short — basic market scenario
• Minimum shoulder
• The mistake here is to take a rebound for a reversal
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