Previous values revised upwards, this period is relatively high! The initial jobless claims data in the U.S. has drawn market attention again: recording 209,000, higher than the expected value of 205,000!

Impact on Federal Reserve policy: A cooling labor market is one of the phenomena the Federal Reserve hopes to see in its fight against inflation, as it helps alleviate inflationary pressures from rising wages.

This data may slightly enhance market expectations for the Federal Reserve to end the tightening cycle early, or even consider cutting interest rates at some point in the future. The market will believe that a weak job market reduces concerns about economic overheating. #美国初请失业金人数

The U.S. dollar may face mild downward pressure, as expectations of interest rate cuts are generally unfavorable for currency exchange rates. #美联储何时降息？

U.S. Treasuries/Bonds: Yields (especially short-term yields) may fall, as expectations of interest rate cuts will boost bond prices.

The impact on the stock market is more complex. On one hand, expectations of interest rate cuts are positive for stock market valuations; on the other hand, if the data triggers excessive concerns about the health of the economy, it could be negative. Generally, a moderate cooling of the labor market is viewed by the market as a “Goldilocks” signal, which may support the stock market.

The cryptocurrency market, as a “risk asset” or “alternative asset” sensitive to global liquidity, typically views the warming of interest rate cut expectations as a macro-level positive, as it implies that the cost of capital in the market may decrease in the future. #美联储维持利率不变

In summary, this report shows that the U.S. labor market has shown preliminary signs of weakness that exceed expectations. It may be interpreted by the market as one of the catalysts for a shift in Federal Reserve policy, providing certain macro-support for risk assets, but at the same time, caution should be exercised regarding the potential for economic slowdown.

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