The Zcash price has done something important after weeks of weakness. Since January 19, the ZEC price has risen by almost 15 percent. It has recovered from a low of about 336 USD to around 362 USD. This increase came just a few days after a confirmed bearish breakout. Such patterns often lead to too many sellers falling into a trap.
At first glance, the situation still seems uncertain. However, there are quietly more purchases beneath the surface. The focus is now on a specific brand. Zcash is about nine percent below an important Fibonacci level. A significant EMA line is also now in focus. Whether the price can reclaim this level will determine if the recovery was just a short spike or if it turns into more, perhaps even a proper rally.
Recovery brings the 100-day EMA back into focus.
The recovery did not come out of nowhere.
After the head and shoulders pattern broke down, the Zcash price briefly fell to around 336 USD. There, buyers intervened and tried to trigger the trap.
Since then, the price has risen by about 15 percent, but it is not surpassing the 100-day EMA (exponential moving average). An EMA is a trend indicator that gives more weight to current price developments.
When Zcash last reclaimed the 100-day EMA on December 3, the price rose by more than 70 percent in the weeks that followed. However, this does not guarantee that it will happen again this time. Nevertheless, it shows why this mark is so important.
At the same time, sellers are still active near the resistance. ZEC is struggling to get above 386 USD. Here, the recovery has stopped, indicating that there is still enough supply. This keeps the bearish structure intact. The question now is whether the buying interest behind it is strong enough to reclaim the area.
Those who bought since January 19 may have an answer to that.
Whales are buying – buying power continues to rise.
On-chain data shows an accumulation of purchases, exactly where they are often most important.
In the past seven days, mega whales (the 100 largest addresses) have increased their ZEC holdings by approximately 9 percent. Their holdings now amount to about 42,623 ZEC. This means they have purchased nearly 3,500 ZEC during this phase.
Even with the normal whales, there is more going on. They are now holding around five percent more, or about 10,182 ZEC. During this time, an additional 480 ZEC were collected.
In total, whales have bought around 4,000 ZEC since January 19. This is not a purchase at the peak but an accumulation after a clear breakout downwards – in the hope of new strength. However, 'smart money' traders are almost entirely out, indicating that at least in the short term, no major upward movement is expected.
The momentum indicators also support this assessment. Between January 14 and 24, the ZEC price fell, but the Money Flow Index increased. This creates a bullish divergence.
The MFI measures buying and selling pressure with price and volume and often indicates buying on pullbacks. If the price falls but the MFI rises, it indicates that investors are buying in the background. This pattern often helps to slow down further downward movements.
The positions of the derivatives also provide another hint. After the recent increase, the leverage has been redistributed, and it is now almost balanced. In the next 30 days, Binance ZEC perpetuals will face short liquidations of 26.37 million USD against longs of 22 million USD.
Therefore, a clear trend reversal is not needed for the price to continue rising. Even a slight increase could start to unwind short positions.
All these points indicate the same thing: There are signs of accumulation.
These Zcash price levels determine the bear trap risk.
The structure is now simple.
To the downside, the trap fails if ZEC falls below 335 to 336 USD on a closing basis. A fall below keeps the bearish pattern active and opens the way for further losses.
To the upside, the important testing area is around 386 to 395 USD (the 0.236 Fib level), which is about 9 percent away from the current level. This zone coincides with the 100-day EMA. A daily close above would reflect the increase from December and significantly weaken the bearish pattern.
If this level is reclaimed, the next upward zone is around 463 USD, where previous supply and liquidation zones lie. A breakthrough above that would completely invalidate the right shoulder of the head and shoulders formation. Above 557 USD, the larger bearish scenario collapses.
Until one of these areas is exceeded, the Zcash price remains in a tight decision zone.
The conclusion is clear: ZEC has already gained 15 percent, large investors are buying on weakness, and there is visible buying pressure on pullbacks. The price is now only nine percent away from a level that has triggered very strong increases before.
