🚨 BREAKING: US government shutdown in 6 days
History shows shutdowns move markets — gold and silver hit new ATHs last time. But for stocks and risk assets, caution is critical.
4 Real Threats:
1️⃣ Data blackout – No CPI, no jobs. The Fed and risk models go blind. VIX spikes.
2️⃣ Collateral shock – Credit warnings + downgrade risk could destroy liquidity.
3️⃣ Liquidity freeze – No RRP buffer. Dealers hoard cash. Funding markets seize.
4️⃣ Recession trigger – Each week cuts ~0.2% GDP, enough to push a stalling economy into recession.
📊 Watch the SOFR–IORB spread — if it gaps, private markets are starving for cash while the Fed holds plenty.
Markets are tense — stay alert and plan your moves.
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