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🔥🔥The Federal Reserve's opening act of the year, the focus is no longer on interest rate cuts!
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At 3 AM Beijing time on January 29, the Federal Reserve will announce its first interest rate decision of 2026. However, this time, the market has no expectation for a rate cut—there's only a 5% probability left. The real protagonist is Powell.
This could be his “farewell performance” during his term. His term ends in May, but the road ahead is fraught with thorns: the Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation against him, and the White House is also applying pressure, ostensibly regarding accountability for the renovation of the building, but in reality targeting interest rate decisions. The independence of the Federal Reserve is being pushed to the edge of a cliff.
Currently, the Federal Reserve's tone is very consistent: the economy is doing okay, inflation is still high, and now is not the time to cut rates. No action in January, perhaps a window in March, but more than half of economists believe that interest rates will not change throughout the entire first quarter. As for the April meeting? By then, it may already be a “formality.” Powell's dream of an “interest rate cut cycle” may have ended before it even began.
The deeper game of nomination power lies in the hands of the president, and the current investigation is also seen as a “warning” — the purpose may be to select a more “obedient” successor. Although the Federal Reserve insists on independence internally, cracks in trust have already appeared.
This meeting has long surpassed a simple interest rate decision. It concerns policy, and more importantly, the fate of an institution. The global market is watching: is this long-running system quietly shifting?
📉 What does this mean for you and me? If the Federal Reserve's decisions increasingly come under political constraints, market volatility will only become more unpredictable. The decline of independence often marks the beginning of rising uncertainty.
💬 Let's chat in the comments:
· Do you think Powell can still stabilize the situation?
· If the Federal Reserve is no longer independent, what will happen to the market?
· Will Bitcoin thus become a “safe haven” in the eyes of more people?
