If viewed from a seasonal perspective, Q1 is usually not a booming phase but rather a 'shaping' phase. Historical data shows that January and February have quite clear positive yield expectations, while March tends to be more polarized.
This tells me that Q1 is rarely the place where the market provides the final answer, but rather where it poses questions.
I usually view Q1 as a test of structure. When $BTC increases in January-February, the important factor is not the percentage increase, but the price increase in the context of liquidity, who is buying and who is selling.
History shows that many years prices rise at the beginning of the year, but the nature is merely a technical rebound in a weak structure, and March is often when the market reveals its true face.
Conversely, in strong cycles, Q1 plays a foundational role. Prices do not necessarily have to rise sharply, but selling pressure gradually decreases, the range narrows, and cash flow becomes more selective. For me, that is the important signal.
Therefore, I do not look at Q1 with the expectation of 'quick wins'. I see it as a period of observation: whether the market is preparing for a real expansion in the subsequent quarters, or if it is just creating an illusion of strength before reversing.
#BTC #MarketRebound
