Technical aspect: To put it directly, the key point is that the uncertainty brought by next week's news is very high. Bitcoin is holding still, waiting for the response from the U.S. stock market. Currently, the price has still not recovered above the key level of 90800, which will be a very important defense point.

If this week's weekly K-line ultimately fails to recover, and if it breaks 90800, we need to be more careful next week due to insufficient liquidity, as it may not retrace back over 90800 or may briefly consolidate before testing the key level of 85000 or the previous low around 80000 again.



News aspect: Yesterday, Trump warned Canada to increase tariffs by 100%. Currently, the Canadian government has already stated that it 'does not seek to reach a free trade agreement with China.' So it seems that this is just a verbal warning from Trump, and the trade war has not yet escalated.

Next, apart from the FOMC on the 28th Wednesday (the latest interest rate cut probability is only 4.4%, and it is highly likely that there will be no cut), the next important date will be Saturday, January 31, to see if the U.S. government will again shut down. Currently, since the Senate Democrats have threatened that if the funding for the Department of Homeland Security is included in the budget, they will shut down the government.

The probability of a government shutdown on Polymarket has soared to 74%. This could be the biggest uncertainty next week. If the U.S. government shuts down again, market liquidity will again be impacted.



Data aspect: (Figure 3) 100+ large whales yesterday -3984, today 1018, a total of +922 this week. The buying situation this week is still quite unstable, mainly due to too many influences from the news. I mentioned to everyone yesterday that the signs of control here are still quite obvious. Just when it tried to stand back at 90800, a large whale heavily sold, causing a short-term spike.



Currently, the ancient super whale seems completely unafraid. All news over the past month seems to have no impact on him. His target is very clear and determined; he currently holds 223,000 ETH, 1,000 BTC, and 510,000 SOL long positions.

ETH: The key small range for the weekly K is between 3044 and 3157. If it cannot at least recover above the key level of 3044, the movements here need to be cautious and are basically identical to BTC's. The altcoins are the same; the main focus should be on Bitcoin. If it fails to recover above 90800 and again drops, then ETH here may retest 2720 to 2811 or even the previous low.



In addition, the current total holdings of large whales (10,000 to 100,000) continue to decline as expected. However, this week's decline has exceeded the staking amount of Bitmine. Currently, Bitmine has staked approximately 1.94M ETH, but the total holdings of large whales have decreased by around 2.1M. This means that excluding the staked ETH from Bitmine, there has been an additional decrease of 150,000, mainly due to too many uncertainties in the market.



Conclusion: Everyone can carefully recall that from the first day of 2026 until now, nearly a month has passed, but how many major international events have occurred? From the first week with the capture of Maduro in Venezuela, the second week with Powell's criminal investigation, then the third week with the Greenland lightning tariff war, to the fourth week, which is now the latest crisis of the Canadian and upcoming U.S. government shutdown. It can only be said that the tension in Bitcoin's skin cannot be stretched any tighter; for safe-haven assets like gold, it seems as if it has reached its home ground.

We can see that almost everything is closely related to Trump. His decisiveness is noticeably more proactive than last year. It is very clear that he wants to quickly resolve these issues before the midterm elections and bring enough achievements back to the U.S. to stimulate the economy. There is nothing better for gaining votes than the stock market soaring, so conversely, this period of crazy news bombardment may also be the 'golden period for finding opportunities.'

Happy weekend, everyone~