The Zcash price has done something important after weeks of weakness. Since January 19, the ZEC price has risen by nearly 15%, from the breakdown low around $336 to about $362. This movement came a few days after a confirmed bearish pattern break, exactly the kind of situation that often lures aggressive sellers into a trap.
It still looks uncertain on the surface. But underneath, the accumulation has quietly increased. Now the focus is on one important level. Zcash is about 9% below a significant Fib level, which also highlights an important EMA line. Whether the price can reclaim that level may determine if this recovery remains a small bounce or grows into something larger, perhaps even a rally.
Rebound brings the 100-day EMA back into focus.
The recovery did not come out of nowhere.
After the head-and-shoulder pattern break was activated, the Zcash price briefly dropped towards $336 before buyers intervened to possibly activate the rally.
Since then, the price has risen about 15% and stopped just below the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). An EMA is a trend indicator that gives more weight to recent prices.
The last time Zcash rose above the 100-day EMA, on December 3, the price increased by more than 70% in the following weeks. This will not necessarily repeat, but it shows why this level is so important now.
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At the same time, sellers are still active at the resistance. ZEC is struggling to break through $386, where the recovery stalled. This shows that the supply is still present. Therefore, the bearish structure remains technically alive. The question is whether the buyers below the surface are strong enough to force a breakout.
The answer begins with who has been buying since January 19.
Whales accumulate while dip-buying strength increases.
On-chain data shows accumulation specifically where it is usually most important.
In the past seven days, mega whales (top 100 addresses) have increased their ZEC balances by about 9%, to approximately 42,623 ZEC. This means they bought nearly 3,500 ZEC net during this recovery period.
Even regular whale wallets participated. In this group, holdings increased by about 5%, to around 10,182 ZEC. This means that a total of about 480 ZEC has been accumulated in the same period.
Together, whales have added about 4,000 ZEC since January 19. This is not buying at highs. It is actually accumulation after a confirmed breakdown, as people expect price strength. However, smart money has completely left, which means that little is expected from a further bounce in the near future.
Momentum indicators support that view. Between January 14 and January 24, the ZEC price fell, but the Money Flow Index actually rose, creating a bullish divergence.
The MFI measures buying and selling pressure based on price and volume and may indicate where bargain hunters strike. If the price drops but the MFI rises, then investors are buying below the surface. This pattern often helps against potential further declines.
Positions in derivatives show another picture. After the recent movement, leverage has returned to a fairly neutral level. For the next 30 days on Binance ZEC perpetuals, short liquidations are slightly higher than longs: $26.37 million in shorts versus $22 million in longs.
Due to this skewed ratio, the price does not need to make a complete trend reversal to rise. Even a moderate increase can force shorts to close.
All of this points to the same thing. Accumulation is present.
Zcash price levels that confirm or invalidate the bear trap.
The structure is now simple.
At the bottom, the trap fails if ZEC closes below $335-$336 on the daily chart. If the price drops below that level again, the bearish pattern remains active and further decline is possible.
At the top, the important test lies around $386-$395 (the 0.236 Fib level), about 9% above the current level. In that zone lies also the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). A daily close above would resemble the recovery in December and weaken the bearish structure.
If that works, the next resistance zone is around $463, where earlier supply and liquidation clusters were. A passage above that level would invalidate the right shoulder of the head-and-shoulder pattern. Above $557, the broader bearish expectation would be off the table.
Until one of these levels breaks, the Zcash price remains in a narrow decision zone.
The conclusion is clear. ZEC has already risen by 15%, whales are buying on weakness, and there is visible buying pressure on dips. The price is now only 9% away from the level where historically larger movements often occur.
