Bitcoin and the 'False Fund' Before the New Cycle: Why Many Analyze a Dive Below $80,000
Bitcoin is going through, in January 2026, a phase of apparent consolidation between approximately $88,000 and $98,000, after the historical peak above $100,000 at the end of 2025. This lateral range, marked by low volatility and compression of the Bollinger Bands, is interpreted by some technical analysts as the prelude to a more decisive movement and, surprisingly, many point downwards before any sustainable bullish breakout.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to experience deep corrections even within long-term bullish cycles. After halvings, the asset often forms intermediate tops followed by pullbacks of 25% to 45% before attacking new all-time highs. The post-2024 pattern seems to follow this logic: initial institutional euphoria, profit-taking by long-term holders, and then a 'shakeout' that tests lower psychological and technical supports.
One of the most cited levels currently is the zone between $73,000 and $78,000 — a region that encompasses the lows of April 2025 and relevant medium-term moving averages. Breaking this level would pave the way for a more aggressive test below $80,000, possibly reaching $68,000–74,000 in scenarios of greater selling pressure. This movement would be seen as the classic 'false bottom' or 'final flush': a last washout of leveraged positions and weak hands before the start of the next explosive bullish leg.
Macroeconomic factors also feed this narrative. Persistent regulatory uncertainties, rotation to traditional assets (gold and silver surged in 2026), possible surprise monetary tightening or a slowdown in institutional capital inflow could accelerate the correction. At the same time, the on-chain structure shows moderate distribution by old holders, a classic sign that the market is still not 'exhausted' enough for a definitive bullish reversal.
Paradoxically, the deeper the drop, the stronger the subsequent recovery tends to be in the Bitcoin cycle. Dips below significant psychological supports clear speculative excesses, attract strategic buyers at 'discounted' prices, and create the necessary capitulation narrative for the next parabolic impulse.
Whatever the path, the consensus among technical analysts is that 2026 is unlikely to be a straight upward line. A new test below $80,000, breaking the current bottom, is seen by many as an almost mandatory ingredient before Bitcoin convincingly aims for all-time highs again. The crypto market, once again, seems to prefer the dramatic path.
