The price of Bitcoin has barely moved in the last 24 hours. BTC is trading steadily around $89,500, although weekly losses remain close to 6%. At first glance, it seems like a quiet consolidation. But the charts show otherwise.
Now, several technical and on-chain signals point to a showdown. Buyers are trying to avoid a larger drop, not to start a new rally. The risk is silently increasing, and a less-known adversary is starting to become significant.
Doji candles and the loss of EMA reflect the behavior of Bitcoin buyers.
In the last three daily sessions, Bitcoin has shown doji candles, with thin bodies and long wicks. These candles show doubt, not balance. Sellers push down, buyers enter late, and neither gains control.
This behavior appears right at the lower boundary of an ascending wedge. An ascending wedge rises but the price movement becomes tighter, and it often breaks downward when support fails.
If this structure fails, the bearish projection points to $77,300, a potential drop of 13% from current levels.
Technical risk increases when moving averages are added. Bitcoin lost its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on January 20. An EMA is a trend indicator that gives more weight to recent prices, making it sensitive to rapid changes.
The last time Bitcoin clearly dropped below the 20-day EMA, on December 12, the price corrected nearly 8%. This time, BTC has already fallen approximately 5% since the breakout before stabilizing. Doji candles suggest that buyers are halting the decline, not reversing it.
In summary, this is not indecision between bulls and bears. It is buyers trying to delay a larger downward move.
Who is still buying and why is that support becoming increasingly weak?
Long-term holders continue to buy, but the pace is slowing down.
On-chain data shows that long-term holders, those wallets holding Bitcoin for 155 days or more, remain net buyers. This group is tracked through the 'Holder Net Position Change' metric, which measures how many coins long-term investors add or withdraw.
In the last two weeks, this metric has remained positive. That purchase helps explain why Bitcoin has not fallen yet. But the strength is weakening.
On January 19, long-term holders added about 22,618 BTC. By January 23, that daily volume dropped to about 17,109 BTC. That is a drop of approximately 24% in buying intensity in just four days.
So, although holders continue to support the price, they are doing so with less strength. This coincides with the doji candles observed on the chart. There is support, but it is diminishing.
This slowdown would not be dangerous by itself. The problem is that at the same time, a new source of pressure is appearing.
Miners emerge as the lesser-known adversary behind the increased risk.
The least appreciated change at this moment comes from Bitcoin miners. The 'Miner Net Position Change' metric tracks the 30-day change in supply in miners' wallets. When the value becomes more negative, it means that miners are selling more Bitcoin over time.
On January 9, miners reduced their holdings by about 335 BTC. By January 23, that number rose to nearly 2,826 BTC. This means that selling pressure increased more than 8x in just two weeks.
The reason is better understood when considering network fees. Monthly Bitcoin network fees have dropped dramatically, according to BeInCrypto analysts. In May 2025, miners earned approximately 194 BTC in monthly fees.
By January 2026, that figure had gradually decreased to about 59 BTC. This means a decrease of approximately 70% in fee revenues.
Lower fees reduce the profit margin for miners. When revenues drop, miners are more likely to sell Bitcoin to cover their operating costs, and this seems to be happening. But their selling strength is still not very strong.
At the same time, whale behavior is starting to soften. The number of whale addresses steadily increased from January 9 to January 22, and then began to stabilize and decrease slightly.
This suggests an early distribution, not an aggressive sell-off, but adds pressure to what miners create.
Now the market depends on price levels.
BTC price levels decide if the stagnation breaks.
With the current price near $89,500, Bitcoin needs to close the day above $91,000, a movement of approximately 1.79%, to reclaim the 20-day EMA. That would reduce immediate bearish pressure and signal that buyers are regaining control.
The risk is closer. If Bitcoin closes the day below $88,500, nearly 1% lower, it would fall below the support of the rising wedge. If this happens, bearish targets could be reached quickly.
The key Bitcoin price levels to watch include first $84,300 and then the wedge projection near $77,300. If long-term holders' purchases continue to decrease while miners keep selling, these levels will become increasingly important.
