Bitcoin 2024–2026: 'old bottle new wine' or are we truly living in a super cycle?
Honestly, during April 2024 when the Halving took place, did we not stay up counting down each block and hoping for an immediate 'to the moon' moment? But the market always teaches us the lesson of patience.
Now, looking back from the year 2026 over the past two years, I realize that we are no longer in the time of 'buying a random coin and praying' anymore. Bitcoin $BTC has changed, and the way it operates in cycles is also very different from before.
If we look at history, the old formula is quite simple: after Halving, it goes sideways for accumulation, about a year later it explodes, peaks, and then crashes hard. But this 2024–2026 cycle is truly strange.
We no longer see 80% drops that make people 'distance themselves' like in 2018 or 2022. Instead, there is a slow but steady upward process. Many are still patiently waiting for a deep crash to 'catch the bottom right', but it seems that ideal bottom may no longer appear.
From my perspective, there are several reasons why the old cycle theory is gradually being challenged. Large capital is now more sophisticated, with the participation of ETF funds and long-term vision financial institutions, preventing prices from free-falling when bad news arises.
Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative tool, but is becoming a technology platform with Layer 2 and a real ecosystem. Equally important, our mindset has become much 'tougher' after the winter of 2022.
I see 2026 as a period of establishing positions. If the old cycles were tsunamis, this cycle is like a high-speed train: not getting rich overnight, but pushing Bitcoin to a new value level.
In that context, the obsession with peaks or bottoms may no longer be as important as how much BTC you can still hold as it gradually becomes a global reserve asset.
History may repeat itself, but always with variations. Do not use the map from 2020 to navigate the forest of 2026. Just stick to real data, observe market psychology, and act wisely.
And what about you all, do you still absolutely believe in the 4-year cycle, or do you also feel that Bitcoin is entering a real super cycle?
#BTC
