In recent months, publishers have not brought billions of stablecoins to market daily. In January 2026, the growth of stablecoins has noticeably slowed down. This signal raises questions about what might happen next in the market.
When comparing trends in stablecoins with the Bitcoin price and similar periods in the past, various possible scenarios emerge. Such comparisons help to get a better picture of the upcoming risks.
USDT market capitalization stagnates – is the next correction now imminent?
Data on changes in market capitalization from CryptoQuant show how the market capitalization of the leading stablecoin changes daily.
The 60-day average (60-day market capitalization change – SMA30) shows that the growth of USDT market capitalization has significantly declined since the end of November last year. The increase decreased from about 15 billion to around 3.3 billion.
In comparison to the Bitcoin price, a strong connection is evident. In earlier phases, an increase in liquidity—visible through the rapid rise in market capitalization—often accompanied strong movements in the Bitcoin price.
However, when the growth of liquidity slowed down, Bitcoin usually began a phase of stagnation. In difficult situations, a downward trend in the market even followed.
Even though the 60-day value – SMA30 is not yet negative, the latest signals from the market in 2026 are already sending warnings.
Firstly, the market capitalization of USDT (ERC-20)—which makes up more than half of the total USDT supply—has decreased in the last month. At the same time, the USDT price has consistently remained below 1 USD during this period.
However, this does not mean decoupling. Nevertheless, declining market capitalization and a price below 1 USD indicate that money is flowing out of the market. Many who hold stablecoins apparently do not want to invest in new opportunities anymore, but prefer to exit.
Additionally, Tether Treasury recently burned 3 billion USDT. This was the first burn since May of last year. Furthermore, CryptoQuant shows that it was the largest USDT burn in the last three years.
Many observers see this as a cautious reaction from major players, as the economic situation appears uncertain and geopolitical tensions are rising. This process usually occurs when investors exchange USDT for USD and Tether removes the corresponding USDT from circulation.
"Someone big has completely left the market," said investor Ted in a comment.
These signals are still early and not strong enough yet to confirm a clear trend. However, if they strengthen, the two-month stagnation at around 308 billion USD in total market capitalization for stablecoins could end and transition into a correction.
In the event of such a development, Bitcoin and other coins could face a higher risk of a bear market—something that most investors would like to avoid.
