Ethereum price is at risk as the altcoin begins to fall after a failed attempt to hold above key resistance. Sentiment is becoming increasingly bearish. The price dropped after an earlier increase at the beginning of the month, signaling bearish dominance again.
Long-term holders continue to provide some support, but increasing selling pressure and weak market conditions are testing this demand strength.
Ethereum price in danger: Will LTH stop the crash?
On-chain data shows that long-term Ethereum holders are still mainly accumulating. The net position of HODLers has maintained green bars since the end of December. This indicates lower distribution and ongoing accumulation by stronger hands. Such behavior dampens recent declines and slows the loss of value.
However, even such strong LTH demand will not hold if macroeconomic and derivatives pressure continues to rise. Long-term support may not protect against a larger drawdown if risk-off sentiment dominates.
The ETH derivatives market is sending warning signals. Positioning on futures heavily favors shorts — over 83% of open positions are bearish. Such discrepancies deepen volatility, especially close to large psychological levels.
Data on liquidations indicates a danger zone at the level of 3000 USD. Entering this area may trigger long liquidations worth about 368 million USD. Forced closing of these positions may significantly accelerate declines as bullish bets are removed.
Momentum indicators confirm bearish signals. The money flow index has fallen below the level of 50, meaning capital is flowing out of the market. After briefly exceeding the overbought level at the beginning of the month, ETH has been losing buying pressure more rapidly.
A declining money flow index usually confirms the dominance of sellers until the situation reverses. Until capital inflows stabilize or start to rise again, the price of Ethereum remains vulnerable to further declines.
At the time of writing this text, the Ethereum price is trading around 3109 USD. A double top formation is forming on the 12-hour chart — this is a bearish setup. This scenario suggests a possible drop of 7.5%, which means a move towards the level of 2900 USD after the formation is confirmed.
Technical and on-chain factors indicate a bearish advantage. Losing support at the level of 3085 USD would confirm a breakout downward. Selling may accelerate if ETH falls below the psychological level of 3000 USD, where the risk of liquidation sharply increases, and bullish defense weakens.
A trend reversal to bullish is possible if long-term holders maintain an advantage. A successful rebound from the level of 3085 USD could restore optimism.
In this case, Ethereum may attempt to recover to around 3287 USD. A return above this level would negate the bearish scenario and confirm a return of demand.
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