In response to millions of euros being bet on the results of the presidential election in the country before the official announcement, Portuguese authorities are preparing to block access to Polymarket.
This movement is occurring in a situation where the use of prediction markets is expanding, with sports, politics, and cryptocurrencies being the main trading areas.
Polymarket, Portuguese authorities strengthen regulations
According to Renascença, the Gambling Regulation Supervisory Service (SRIJ) has confirmed that Polymarket is operating illegally as a cryptocurrency-based prediction platform in a country where betting on political events is prohibited by law.
According to regulators, Polymarket received an official notice on Friday, setting a 48-hour deadline for halting operations within Portugal. However, despite the order, access to the platform remained possible as of Monday, prompting SRIJ to solidify plans to request a block from internet service providers.
Polymarket drew attention due to the unusually high stakes that accumulated just before the voting deadline in the presidential election.
According to the tally, over 4 million euros were wagered just before the official results were announced, and the total trading volume in the main market for the presidential election exceeded 120 million dollars. During this time, the odds significantly tilted in favor of Mr. Antonio José Seguro long before the official predictions were released.
According to market data, Mr. Seguro's probability of winning skyrocketed from about 60% in the morning to over 90% early in the evening, becoming almost certain by the time the television stations began broadcasting their predictions.
This sharp fluctuation has raised speculation that some traders may have had prior access to exit poll data and other undisclosed information.