In the past two years, many people have been asking a question: why has global politics suddenly become so chaotic?
Trump's withdrawal from international organizations, denial of international law, and reconstruction of ally systems using tariffs has left Europe torn between security and economy. Developing countries are caught in a repeated back-and-forth between alignment and survival; on the surface, it appears to be a radical personal political style. Essentially, it reflects the systemic bankruptcy of the post-World War II order.
1. International law has never been a moral standard, but a cost function
The world rules after World War II were not designed for "fairness," but rather to reduce the costs of hegemonic rule. When the United States had absolute industrial advantages, adhering to the rules was more cost-effective than using force.
Thus, we have the United Nations, WTO, IMF, and free trade system. Rules are the cost-saving solutions for the strong.
Two, the era of high economic growth has disappeared, and artificial intelligence is driving a structural adjustment of the entire industry.
As the world enters an era of low growth, artificial intelligence leads to the depletion of demographic dividends, severe industrial overcapacity, comprehensive loss of control over debt rates, diminishing marginal returns on technology, and rules no longer distribute 'incremental' growth but only restrict 'stock'. At this point, adhering to rules becomes a form of self-weakening.
Three, financial hegemony has come to an end.
America's most lethal problem is not the outflow of manufacturing but that financial returns have long been higher than real returns. Capital is no longer willing to build industries, only to engage in financial arbitrage.
What results is the collapse of the middle class, a shrinking tax base, fiscal reliance on debt, and hegemony can only be maintained through currency and sanctions. However, as the whole world begins to de-dollarize, the efficiency of this system is also declining.
Four, Trump is not the cause, but the result.
Trump's tariffs, withdrawal from groups, and confrontations are not emotional but structural choices.
In the era of low growth, hegemony must shift from 'rule management' to 'direct control of power'. Tariffs are not just trade tools, but fiscal tools, tools for industrial repatriation, and political mobilization tools.
Therefore, Trump dares to speak and act; the United States does not need international law.
Five, technology is being nationalized.
AI, chips, energy, aerospace, are no longer commercial competition, but national security.
Technical returns are uncertain and have strong spillover effects; the state must personally intervene. Therefore, Trump must turn trade into an industrial war, markets into battlefields, and alliances into negotiation chips.
The world is not moving towards war, but towards long-term confrontation. This is a new normal of low growth + high debt + high conflict. When rules can no longer distribute growth, power inevitably returns to its most primitive form: tariffs, military spending, sanctions, resources, and discourse power. It is not Trump declaring 'war' on the world, but the old globalization rule system that has become severely damaged.
The transition period from the old globalization system to the new system is an opportunity for 'decentralization'. The blockchain, with its code as rules, will bring some different cognitive changes to global politics.
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