Brothers, I am Mig.
The market this morning gave everyone another lesson. Bitcoin plummeted nearly 4000 dollars in one hour, and now the entire network is filled with anxiety and questions: should we run, copy, or just lie flat? Don't worry, let's first understand these two things.
First, the news aspect: the 'trigger' for this plunge is not simple.
Over the weekend, the threat of tariffs from Europe and the U.S. resurfaced, and as soon as Trump spoke, the global market immediately caught a cold.
You see, the response from the traditional market is very honest: gold and silver jumped high as safe-haven assets, reaching an all-time high; meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures fell directly. This indicates that the risk appetite of large funds is rapidly cooling, withdrawing from risk assets like the stock market.
The cryptocurrency market, as part of global liquidity and a high-volatility risk frontier, is inevitably the first to be sold off. This is not merely negative news for the crypto circle, but a precise transmission of global macro risk aversion sentiment.
News summary: The external macro environment has shifted from 'greed' to 'risk aversion', which is the core background for today's market crash. If you are unclear about specific points, you can follow Mig, who provides 24-hour real-time reminders in the village for friends who have followed me. Chat room
Second, from a technical perspective: the 4-hour chart tells us that the bullish defense line is in urgent danger.
After the sharp decline, the price barely closed around 92400, a very delicate position.
Above, 95600 is today's strong resistance level for the rebound, as well as a densely packed area of moving averages on the 4-hour chart; further up, the high resistance at 96800 is even harder to surpass.
More importantly, after the MACD fast and slow lines formed a dead cross at a high position above the 0 axis, they are accelerating to diverge downwards, which is a typical signal of weakening short-term momentum. The key support below is primarily at 91800; if it fails, the integer level of 90000 and the psychological bottom will face severe tests.
Technical summary: The technical pattern has been damaged by a large bearish candle, and the market has shifted from strong to weak. The core focus moving forward is contesting the 91800 death line.
Urgent operational advice for retail investors:
Brothers who are heavily positioned: if the market rebounds to the 94000-95000 area, it is your opportunity to reduce positions and manage risk, not a time to add positions. Prioritize survival.
Brothers with light positions looking to catch the bottom: patiently wait for two signals: either the price shows a clear hourly chart level stop-loss stabilization signal near 91800 or 90000; or the price strongly surges back above 95600.
Brothers in cash: you are the winners right now. Maintain your advantage and wait for the market to clearly define its direction; right-side trading opportunities are safer.
Where exactly to enter the market and where to set the stop loss most safely? Mig village has already provided reminders; those who want to join, become Mig villagers! Chat room
My personal opinion: a direct V-shaped reversal is a low probability event; oscillating to find a bottom is the main theme.
Overall, I believe the likelihood of the market immediately reversing strongly and challenging the 96800 high after a sharp decline is very low. A greater probability is that the market needs time to digest the panic.
Next, the market is highly likely to enter a 'declining consolidation' phase: that is, under the pressure of 95600, it will oscillate repeatedly and may test the support strength of 91800 again. If macro sentiment continues to deteriorate, we might even test the 90000 mark.
The short-term trend has turned to bearish dominance; don’t blindly guess the bottom; all rebounds are meant to confirm pressure and reduce positions.
The market always has opportunities; the key is to operate calmly. Mig will continue to help everyone keep an eye on on-chain dynamics, moving forward steadily together! Follow Mig and participate in every attack by Mig villagers! Mig will announce specific entry times and real-time news daily in the village!
