After making waves with the launch of its supercycle, XRP is now awakening catastrophic scenarios. Indeed, the prospect of a nearly 50% drop is now being discussed by analysts!
XRP could drop -47% this year
The crypto market remains marked by strong volatility for XRP, which fluctuates around $2 after a drop of 43.7% since its peak in July 2025 at $3.66. Several analysts mention an extreme bearish scenario that could lead to an additional loss of 47%, bringing the price down to $1.2 to $1.4.
Analyst EGRAG Crypto outlines this possibility and compares XRP's current position to past cycles, like in 2019 where the collapse was followed by vigorous rebounds. According to him, if the market follows a structural pattern similar to the white circles on his chart, a correction of 31 to 47% remains plausible, even if long-term fundamentals remain solid and target $10. The expert sees such a drop as a buying opportunity, reinforced by a trajectory reminiscent of the 2017 bull run.
Zach Rector reinforces this bearish perspective by alerting to critical technical resistances. Each rise in XRP's price brings it closer to the Fibonacci level 0.236 around $2.27, a decisive zone that could either propel a rise to $2.40 or form a double top.
A rejection here would indicate a weakening of momentum, amplified by regulatory uncertainties in the United States, such as the postponement of the CLARITY Act after Coinbase's withdrawal. Historically, XRP has always reacted violently to legal developments: a surge to $3.34 in January 2025 on judicial expectations, a drop below $2 due to delays, and then a peak of $3.65 in July.
Despite these risks, a collapse of 47% seems compromised in the short term. Analyst Steph compares XRP to Bitcoin from 14 years ago, which was valued at $2 just before a parabolic explosion to $1,242 in 2013. At $2 today, XRP would share a similar skepticism, underestimated but ready for exponential growth.
XRP ETFs confirm this resilience. On January 15, they attracted $17.06 million, a daily record surpassing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, with a 60% increase in inflows despite a global market losing $47 billion. These positive flows have lasted 42 days since launch, following six consecutive inflows after the outflows on January 7.
The moral of the story: all roads lead to Rome, but for XRP, some take detours first.
