Bitcoin whales (BTC) are becoming increasingly active at the beginning of 2026. However, the upward trend may not last long, as new data indicates growing selling pressure. Traders betting on price increases should consider counter-scenarios to limit risk.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin whales are increasing their activity on exchanges. Such behavior is particularly risky during low trading volumes.
Bitcoin whales are pouring in sharply in January
One of the most concerning signals is the Whale Ratio indicator across all exchanges (EMA14), which has reached its highest level in ten months.
This indicator shows the ratio of the top 10 inflows to all deposits on exchanges. A high value means whales are actively using exchanges.
Although Bitcoin reserves on exchanges continue to decline due to demand from DAT and ETFs, a sudden spike in this indicator could be a warning sign. It suggests BTC balances on exchanges might start rising again. CryptoOnchain, an analyst from CryptoQuant, wrote:
"This phenomenon aligns with Bitcoin's price rebound attempt following a correction phase. The pattern suggests a potential strategy by whales to take advantage of buyer liquidity, lock in profits, and exit positions using the current market conditions."
Moreover, weakening market liquidity increases the risk of sudden price movements and higher volatility.
According to a Glassnode post on X, spot trading volume for Bitcoin and altcoins has dropped to its lowest level since November 2023:
"This weakening in demand clearly contrasts with the recent market gains. It reveals increasingly thin liquidity supporting the latest price increases."
On a low-liquidity market, even a small demand is enough to push prices up. Conversely, moderate selling pressure can easily trigger significant declines.
If large whales on exchanges begin selling, as suggested by indicators, and liquidity remains low, a Bitcoin rebound of over 6% and a 10% improvement in altcoin market capitalization could quickly come to an end.
In addition, analyst Willy Woo noticed a sharp decline in Bitcoin's transaction fees and described the market as a "city of ghosts".
Mempool and transaction fee charts show record-low on-chain activity. Both indicators have clearly declined, reflecting a drop in the number of transactions. Lower on-chain activity means weaker capital inflows and outflows, causing the market to lose momentum.
Woo expects a potential short-term breakout in January when liquidity reaches a local minimum. However, the long-term outlook remains negative due to a lack of real activity.
In the short term, some analysts expect Bitcoin to correct down to the 90,000 USD and 88,500 USD levels. These levels coincide with the new CME gap.
To view the latest cryptocurrency market analysis from BeInCrypto, click here.
