The current market situation, to put it simply, is waiting for another "monthly level reshuffle."
Before and after the monthly update, the most common action is not to pull trends, but to—liquidate liquidity through spikes.
From a structural perspective, the real accumulation area is not in front of us, but concentrated in the range of 2800—2880. In this range, stop losses, panic selling, and margin calls are all squeezed together.
Therefore, one of the simplest and most brutal methods cannot be ruled out: one spike down to wash out everything that needs to be washed.
But note one thing: washing out does not mean turning bearish; often, after washing out, one is qualified to discuss direction.
If the subsequent action is just a small dip to sweep a leg, quickly stabilize, decrease in volume, and slowly be caught, then this kind of dip is essentially paving the way for medium-term layout.
What really needs to be vigilant about is the kind of "pain-free and numb" false breakouts, which are neither up nor down, making them most likely to repeatedly sweep losses and wear down people's confidence.
At the beginning of the month, as long as there is no deep dip to the line of 2730, the entire structure has not been broken.
What is truly worth focusing on later is the attitude around 3050.
Why do I say this? Because the major coin is already close to the upper track of the downward channel, and ETH has already stood up once, but has not yet completed confirmation.
As always: the confirmation of the major coin is always more valuable than that of the second coin.
If the major coin can complete a breakthrough and stabilize at a key position, then the second coin standing firmly above 3100 will not be a single point trend, but a resonant oscillation upward structure.
Returning to the operational level, the most important thing here is not the direction, but whether "it is worth taking action."
Currently, the box trading idea remains unchanged,
But I must emphasize: the range is meant for capturing volatility, not for forcing trades.
At time nodes like the beginning and end of the month, the probability of spikes is much greater than steady pushes.
If there is a need to provide a deeper position, it may be better to consider extending the cycle a bit.
A market that can still move up after a spike will not be small in level.
On the short position side, it is also not about betting on direction, but about hitting extremes. The range of 3040—3080 belongs to the upper edge of the box trading area; if a position is provided, then consider a short.
But if there is a volume breakout and stabilization at 3050, then don't hesitate, directly abandon the short position strategy.
For those who have already taken profits, they can take partial profits, leaving a bit of a base position to see if there is spike space; if there is, profit; if not, consider it a convenient trade.
