After mistakenly closing all long positions last time, I haven't encountered suitable opportunities for a rebound. The recent market has been relatively dull; I've been observing the strong altcoin $RIVER for more than half a month. Today, I plan to test the peak of
#river with a mini position, mainly to accumulate my experience in judging entry points and identifying peaks. This cryptocurrency is not my long-term target; the funding rate is high, and it does not meet my criteria of a 10 billion market cap.
The reason I believe it may be approaching its peak is that it has rebounded nearly 30 times from the recent short-term bottom. As a new coin that was launched at the end of last year, its current speculative market cap has reached 3 billion, indicating a high degree of speculation. A double top pattern has appeared on the 4-hour chart, with MACD showing momentum divergence, RSI overbought, and the price approaching previous highs but with a significant decrease in trading volume resulting in a volume-price divergence. After switching the funding rate from a 1-hour cycle to a 4-hour cycle, the overall level has significantly dropped from over 20% the previous day to now 1-2%, showing a clear decrease. These signs indicate that most of the earlier short positions (including some large short holders) have been liquidated, and the willingness of shorts to enter the market is limited. The chips available for the market maker to harvest have greatly reduced, and the upward space for the future market is limited. The stop-loss price is set at 79, and the liquidation price is controlled at 200+, with funding rates skyrocketing to 1% for reducing positions or stopping losses. I have also opened a bot to record the funding rate situation.
I want to emphasize again: due to the long-term high funding rate of this cryptocurrency, I am only testing with a very small position this time, aiming only to enhance my ability to judge the peaks and entry points of the cryptocurrency; making a profit is not the goal, so please do not follow blindly!
It is somewhat regrettable that when establishing the position in Monero $XMR , it did not exhibit a double top pattern like River and
$ZEC , ultimately only forming a single top, leading to a failed position. Otherwise, Monero would be a good long-term position target.