Gold dropped over 5% today.
But that’s not the real question.
The real question is:
Where are we in the cycle?
Step away from the daily price noise and look at what most traders ignore — 10-year real yields.
Historically, gold does not behave like stocks that compound steadily over time.
It moves in cycles:
Long periods of consolidation
Short, aggressive upside expansions
Then calm again
Most of gold’s gains happen during brief windows tied to major economic shifts.
The driver: real yields
History is consistent:
Falling or unstable real yields → gold performs well
Rising, stable real yields → gold underperforms
The logic is simple.
Gold offers no yield, so when real bond yields rise, holding gold becomes less attractive.
What’s changed?
Since 2023:
Real yields have begun to roll over
Geopolitical risk has increased
Confidence in monetary policy has weakened
That combination fueled gold’s upside move.
So the recent pullback doesn’t automatically signal a trend reversal.
It may simply be normal volatility inside a larger structural move.
The mistake most traders make
Gold doesn’t move because of headlines or daily news.
It moves because of shifts in real yields and liquidity.
Those who chase candles get shaken out.
Those who study cycles stay positioned.
Bottom line
Don’t judge gold by a single session or week.
Focus on the broader trend.
Watch real yields.
Ignore the noise.
Data beats narratives.
