I keep seeing people argue about one thing — whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates today. But honestly, i think the market has already moved past that question. A no-cut outcome is mostly priced in. So for me, the real issue is not the decision itself, it is how Jerome Powell frames the future. His tone matters far more then the headline.
At the same time, there is something happening under the surface that feels just as important. Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 open interest has climbed to around $793 million, an all-time high. Nearly $800 million in leveraged positions sitting on-chain tells me one thing very clearly: risk is building. When leverage reaches these levels, the market becomes fragile. It does not take a major shock to create a major move.
What makes this even more dangerous is the positioning. Longs and shorts are almost evenly split. No side has real control. That usually means traders are active, but unsure. From my expereince, this is the type of environment where markets stop rewarding conviction and start punishing it.
If Powell sounds even slightly dovish, i would not be surprised to see shorts get squeezed and price jump fast. If he comes off hawkish, overleveraged longs could be forced out just as quickly. And if he stays neutral, the most likely outcome is violent chop — sharp wicks up and down that trap both sides.
I do not see this as a clean bullish setup. I also do not see it as a clean bearish setup. I see it as a liquidation-driven market.
Most people will try to predict the next move. I would rather watch how price reacts after Powell speaks and after the first wave of liquidations clears. In a market loaded with leverage and already-priced expectations, patience feels like the real edge.
Keep thinking.
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