🔍 RIVERUSDT (Perp) — REALITY CHECK

📉Current price: ~$45.2

From high $66 → $45 = ~32% dump

Structure on 1H:

➜ Lower highs + lower lows

➜ Supertrend flipped BEARISH (red cloud overhead around ~$50+)

👉 Trend is still down, no debate.

🧠 Derivatives Data (THIS is important)

1️⃣Open Interest (OI)

OI collapsed hard during the dump

Now slowly rebuilding 👉 This means:

Longs already got wiped

New positions are entering after pain

Market is re-leveraging again → next move will be violent

2️⃣ Long / Short Ratios

By Accounts & Positions

Longs: ~54–56%

Shorts: ~44–46% 👉 Bias = More longs than shorts

⚠️ That’s NOT bullish yet.

It means:

Retail leaning long too early

Fuel exists for another flush if price rejects

3️⃣ Funding Rate 🚨

Funding flipped from deep negative → positive

Current funding: ~+0.01%

👉 Translation:

Shorts already paid

Now LONGS are paying

Crowd is getting optimistic too early

📌 Classic setup for:

Range

Or another liquidity sweep down

4️⃣ Volume & Basis

Taker Buy volume increased after dump

Basis expanding slightly upward

👉 Means:

Dead-cat bounce attempts

Not strong enough to flip trend yet

🧱 Key Levels (NON-NEGOTIABLE)

Resistance (Sell Zones)

$47.5 – $49.0 → heavy supply

$50.5 → Supertrend + breakdown level (killer zone)

Support

$42.0 – $43.0 → intraday demand

$39.5 – $40.0 → liquidation magnet if panic hits

Below $39 → free fall risk

🧠 FINAL VERDICT (Read twice)

❌ DO NOT FOMO LONG HERE

Trend = bearish

Funding = positive

Longs already crowded

No confirmed higher low yet

✅ BEST STRATEGY (Professional Play

🔴 Primary Bias: SHORT THE BOUNCE

Short zones

$47.5 – $49.5

SL: above $51

Targets:

TP1: $43

TP2: $40

TP3 (if panic): $36–38

📌 This is the high-probability trade

🟢 Long Only If (STRICT CONDITIONS)

You long ONLY IF:

Price reclaims $50.5

Funding cools back to neutral / negative

OI increases WITH price (not against it)

Then:

Entry: $50.5 retest

Targets: $55 → $60

Otherwise: NO LONG

#RIVERUSDT #BinanceFutures #BTC100kNext? #WriteToEarnUpgrade $RIVER $ACU $FHE