The January 2026 Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, released on January 9, showed that the US labor market ended 2025 on a "low-hire, low-fire" note. While the headline job growth missed expectations, the unemployment rate unexpectedly improved.
Key Figures: December 2025 Data
The report reflects the employment situation for December 2025, providing the first clear look at the market following the disruptions caused by the federal government shutdown in late 2024.
Metric Actual Forecast (Consensus) Previous (Revised)
Non-Farm Payrolls +50,000 ~60,000 – 70,000 56,000
Unemployment Rate 4.4% 4.5% – 4.6% 4.6%
Avg. Hourly Earnings (YoY) 3.8% 3.6%
Major Takeaways
A Sluggish Year: 2025 was the weakest year for job growth since the 2020 pandemic. The US added only 584,000 jobs for the entire year, a sharp decline from the 2 million added in 2024.
Sector Highlights: Job gains were heavily concentrated in Health Care (+38,500) and Leisure & Hospitality (+47,000). Conversely, retail, manufacturing, and construction sectors saw job losses during the month.
Wage Growth vs. Inflation: Average hourly earnings rose by 3.8% over the past 12 months, slightly outpacing inflation and providing some relief to consumer purchasing power despite the slow hiring environment.
The "AI Factor": Economists noted that a corporate "hiring pause" persists as companies assess the impact of AI investments on their workforce needs.
Market & Policy Impact
The "mixed" nature of the report—weak hiring but a lower unemployment rate—has led markets to believe the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates steady at their next meeting. While the cooling labor market supports the case for future cuts, the drop to 4.4% unemployment suggests there isn't enough immediate "stress" to force a more aggressive easing cycle right now.
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