Bitcoin $BTC and ether $ETH remain under pressure as we approach the festive season. The market is facing a catalyst vacuum, compounded by fading hopes for monetary easing in early 2026.

Here is the breakdown of the pre-holiday landscape:

🦅 Fed Pivot Delayed: The market is repricing risk. Expectations for a Jan 2026 rate cut have collapsed to below 15%, down from 25% last week. The narrative of elevated rates to control inflation is dampening buying momentum.

🏦 ETF Outflows Persist: Sentiment in traditional vehicles is sour. US-listed spot ETFs saw over 284 mln USD in outflows. Bitcoin ETFs bled nearly 189 mln USD, showing persistent selling pressure, and ether ETFs flipped back to outflows of -95 mln USD from the previous day's inflows.

🐋 The Whale Divergence: Despite ETF selling, onchain exchange data shows significant withdrawals. Investors pulled nearly 11k BTC from exchanges yesterday. The largest cohort (>10 mln USD) led the charge, withdrawing over 8k BTC. Big players are taking custody.

🧠 Strategic Accumulation: While aggregate Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are distributing, a sub-set of LTHs and Short-Term Holders (STHs) are quietly accumulating. The rise in Realized Profit suggests they are positioning for potential short-term recovery trades.

The overall condition suggests a slowdown. We are likely looking at slower price movements and rangebound action as the market drifts into the year-end.

Are you interpreting the exchange withdrawals as a bullish divergence, or just operational shuffling?

#bitcoin #ether #fed #onchain #analysis #marketstructure

Data sources: Exness FMS, CME Group, Glassnode, Farside Investors