🚨 Heads up: A major disruption could be hours away
A U.S. government shutdown is highly likely once funding runs out at 12:00 AM ET tonight.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are assigning ~86% odds to a shutdown scenario.
If this happens, we’re looking at a serious data freeze across the U.S. economy.
What could be impacted:
• Jobs data (NFP):
The Bureau of Labor Statistics would pause operations, which could delay the monthly payrolls report if the shutdown continues.
• Inflation numbers (CPI & PPI):
Price data collection stops, leaving markets blind on near-term inflation trends.
• GDP & PCE:
The Bureau of Economic Analysis typically goes offline, meaning no GDP releases and no PCE inflation data — the Fed’s key metric.
• CFTC positioning data:
The Commitment of Traders (CoT) report disappears, cutting off visibility into institutional positioning.
• SEC activity slows:
Only critical enforcement continues; routine filings and approvals are largely frozen.
• IPOs & M&A approvals:
New listings and merger reviews get delayed. Deal timelines? Uncertain at best.
Why this matters:
Historically, every week of a shutdown trims roughly 0.1%–0.2% from GDP growth.
As uncertainty drags on, markets tend to apply a growing risk discount to equities.
I’ll keep sharing updates as things develop.
For context: I’ve spent over a decade studying macro cycles and have flagged multiple major market tops — including the October Bitcoin ATH.
#CZAMAonBinanceSquare #USPPIJump #USGovShutdown #WhoIsNextFedChair #MarketCorrection
